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The wave counting of the 4-hour chart of the bitcoin cryptocurrency is absolutely clear and understandable on a higher scale. At this time, we see a classic three-wave correction structure a-b-c, which has already been completed at the moment. Thus, the construction of a new upward trend section has now begun (presumably) within the three-wave structure. Bitcoin is currently striving to overcome the peak of wave a, that is, to the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which equates to $42,500. After this mark is worked out, everything will depend on whether the attempt to break it is successful. If so, then bitcoin, inspired by success, can continue to be in demand with the target of $46,800, which corresponds to 50.0% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt will lead not only to a resumption of the decline in quotes but also to a very likely transformation of the entire downward trend section of the trend into a five-wave one. In this case, I will look forward to the May 19th low update. That is, bitcoin could drop well below $29,000.
The news background for bitcoin remains very depressing. Even though the main cryptocurrency is quite actively recovering in recent days, its prospects are now rather vague. Most likely, the cryptocurrency will manage to reach the level of $42,500 or even a little higher, but it will be very difficult for it to return even higher, at least with such a news background. Let me remind you that, according to the latest information, China is going to introduce a ban on cryptocurrency mining, as well as ban all financial institutions from providing any cryptocurrency services. Thus, it will soon be impossible to mine cryptocurrencies in China, where the largest number of mining farms are concentrated.
In addition, Elon Musk regularly makes statements or messages on social networks, to whom the cryptocurrency market reacts even better than news from China. According to the latest information, Musk met with North American mining companies. The result of this meeting was the decision to form the Bitcoin Mining Council, which will control greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. After this information, bitcoin rose to $40,000, but could not continue to rise. As I said, it will be very difficult for bitcoin to grow now. In addition, this is not such an important decision - for bitcoin, its prospects, and the environment. Let me remind you that bitcoin is mined in many places in the world. And not everywhere owners of mining farms are ready to use only "green" energy when mining. In China, for example, most of the mining farms are powered by coal-fired power plants, which work amazingly well on pollution.
Based on the analysis, I believe that the three downward wave structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, so I recommend small purchases of bitcoin for each MACD upward signal with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level could lead to a new strong decline in bitcoin, but I hope more that in the coming year, the cryptocurrency will build complex corrective structures and will not resume the upward trend.
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