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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a fall to the lower border of the sideways trend corridor yesterday and even closed slightly below it. However, it is still impossible to conclude that the quotes have left this corridor. Yesterday, the growth of the US dollar was driven by important statistics during the day from America. But it is not every day that it will receive such strong support. It is only necessary to look at the chart, and it becomes clear that bear traders remain weak and have already made several attempts to start moving in favor of the US currency. But they all failed in the last two weeks. Today, the hit parade of the most important statistics and events will continue. Today will be a speech by Jerome Powell, who is currently receiving a lot of attention on monetary policy. Let me remind you that recently there have been active rumors that the Bank of England may raise the rate as early as 2022, and the Fed may begin to wind down the QE program in 2021. Thus, both Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell are now receiving increased attention from traders. Bailey did not report anything interesting yesterday, so today, the hope is for the Fed chairman. Let me remind you that the values of reports can be revised over time, including for the worse. If today the Nonfarm is at the height, that is, at least 670 thousand, then bear traders can increase their pressure on the pair, which will allow the US currency to continue to grow. Thus, the fate of the Briton today is in the hands of Jerome Powell and the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240), a reversal in favor of the US dollar, and began the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.4003. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the bullish mood of traders. Closing the pair's rate under it will favor a further drop in quotes and change the mood of traders to "bearish."
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes of the pound/dollar pair continues. Closing quotes under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process may continue at the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, several important events in the UK and the US ultimately allowed the pair to show a rather strong drop.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - PMI index for the construction sector (08:30 UTC).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (11:00 UTC).
US - unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the average hourly wage (12:30 UTC).
On Friday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain many important events. Most of it will be in America. The information background promises to be strong today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of May 25 on the British dollar showed that speculators' "bullish" mood has become stronger. Thus, the British dollar can also continue its growth, although it has been trading extremely boring in the last two weeks. During the reporting week, speculators opened only 936 long contracts, but at the same time, reducing the number of short contracts on their hands by 4,693 units. I also note that, unlike the European currency, interest in the British dollar is declining among all categories of traders. In total, they closed 8 thousand contracts during the week.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar are recommended today if there is a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor on the hourly chart with a target of 1.4216. It is recommended to sell the pound sterling if the daily chart closes below the trend line.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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