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On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern of the EUR/USD pair has slightly gotten confusing lately, but the quotes' exit from the lows reached on June 4 preserves the integrity of the current wave pattern. We have received a three-wave wave 4, and if the current wave pattern is correct, then the expected wave 5 of the upward trend section begins to form. And although the internal wave pattern of the proposed wave 3 remains very doubtful, 5 waves are still clearly visible inside this wave. Therefore, there is no reason yet to make adjustments to the current wave pattern. If the decline in quotes continues next week, then it will be possible to really talk about making adjustments, since in this case, wave 4 will take an even more complex form and will simply not fit into the wave picture of the entire upward section of the trend that started from March 31.
The news background remained very weak on Wednesday. Markets have already fully focused their attention on Thursday, as there really will be something to focus on. After all, the results of the European Central Bank's meeting will be summed up. And although no special changes in monetary policy are expected, interesting information may still come. It can be recalled that any information that will support the Euro currency or reduce the demand for the US dollar is needed based on the current wave pattern. So, we believe that we can count on it from the second to the last day of the trading week.
In addition to the ECB meeting, the US inflation report for May will also be published. Markets expect CPI to accelerate from April's 4.2% y/y to 4.7% y/y. However, it is possible that prices will rise even more and whatever the reason for this rise is a negative factor for the US currency. Therefore, the dollar is expected to weaken. As for the ECB meeting, there is no reason to assume that they will announce the curtailment of the stimulus program, or even more so, talk about raising rates since the EU economy may begin to recover and show growth only in the second quarter. It is worth noting that the ECB's key rate has been at zero or negative since 2014, that is, from the time when there was still no pandemic or crisis. Thus, it would be foolish to expect that the ECB will immediately rush to raise rates at the slightest sign of economic recovery after a serious crisis. Most likely, everything will remain as it was. This will not support the euro, but there is also US inflation.
Based on the analysis, the quotes of the instrument are still expected to rise, although the current wave pattern is quite uncertain. In any case, it is still recommended to buy the instrument with targets located around the levels of 1.2300 and 1.2340, for each MACD upward signal, but now, any new decline in quotes may lead to the need to make adjustments to the current wave pattern.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section is still quite complete. The section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took on a corrective and also fully completed form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the construction of a new section of the upward trend continues and its first two waves is already over.
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