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The drop in oil yesterday was driven by the growth of the US dollar, as financial investors who had invested in commodities to protect against inflation, began to withdraw from these sectors.
On Thursday, futures fell by 3.3%. Oil was under pressure. The strengthening of the US dollar has reduced the attractiveness of goods priced in this currency. This is exactly what happened after Powell's announced that the ultra-easy monetary policy will be over soon.
In parallel with these developments, Iran's statements that the continuation of the nuclear deal is approaching have raised concerns about the potential flow of crude oil exports from the Islamic Republic.
According to Again Capital's Founding Partner John Kilduff, all those commodities have gone down in price: "It's a liquidation that's been piling up for weeks."
Nevertheless, the oil market continues to show signs of growth even despite the general decline in prices. Citigroup Inc. said that the international benchmark Brent may exceed $ 80 per barrel soon, and demand continues to grow. According to a report from the Energy Information Administration. US oil and fuel exports also noticeably increased last week.
But as a means of defense against inflation, oil has lost its luster after the Fed's statement.
According to Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank's Head of Commodity Strategy, oil markets are driven not only by fundamental factors but also by financial investors who buy oil for other reasons – such as hedging inflation, or just momentum, as well as playing with the US dollar.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the fundamental issues are not yet finished and are subject to discussion. This will happen regardless of the elections in the country on June 18.
Meanwhile, Ed Moya, who is a Senior Analyst at Oanda Corp., stated that the prospect of increasing Iranian oil in the oil market in the near future will continue to put pressure on investors along with the growth of the US dollar.
Thus, Tehran probably won't be able to increase production until the fourth quarter as the nuclear deal may be unattainable. This is stated in the report of the consultant Energy Aspect.
Iran has said it could extend the main monitoring treaty, potentially buying time to renew the 2015 nuclear deal.
According to the head of the state oil company of Nigeria, Mele Kyari, OPEC+ can easily agree to increase production.
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