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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes on Thursday performed a fall to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3906) and rebound from it. However, at the moment, they are already heading back to this level. A new rebound from it will again allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the British dollar and some growth in the direction of the levels of 1.3972 and 1.4024. Fixing the quotes below the level of 76.4% will increase the probability of continuing the fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.3800). The information background for the Briton during yesterday was practically absent. Traders continued to be impressed by the results of the Fed meeting and traded following them all day. The most interesting thing is that even today when a full day has passed after the summing up of the meeting and the speech of Jerome Powell, the Briton is still prone to falling.
It means that traders took everything said on Wednesday evening very seriously. The UK retail trade report for May will be released this morning. Traders expect this indicator to grow by 1.5% compared to April. Thus, the British dollar needs stronger data to stop its decline. Otherwise, the fall in the pair's quotes may continue. Also, a small impact on the Briton may have the extension of quarantine in Britain, which was caused by an increase in coronavirus cases in recent weeks. The authorities want to have time to vaccinate as many people as possible before completely lifting all quarantine restrictions. However, this decision by London may lead to a reduction in the speed of economic recovery. In addition, the UK is negotiating with the European Union on the Northern Ireland Protocol and making changes to it.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor. On the one hand, this allows traders to count on the continuation of the fall since the quotes also closed at the level of 1.4003. On the other hand, the fall was caused by an important event, which is extremely rare. Therefore, I do not believe that the probability of further growth of the US currency has increased significantly over the past two days. Nevertheless, the fall in quotes may continue in the direction of 23.6% (1.3870).
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes also closed under an important trend line, allowing traders to now expect a further drop in quotes in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD –Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, traders continued to trade, based on the results of the Fed meeting. The information background on this day was practically absent for the Briton.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - changes in retail trade volume with and without fuel costs (06:00 UTC).
On Friday, the information background will be weak, as only one report will be released during the day.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of June 8 on the British pound showed that the mood of the major players has not changed. In total, speculators closed 7,000 long and short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, only the total number of contracts focused on the hands of the "Non-commercial" category of traders decreased. Moreover, they also got rid of both types of contracts in the "Commercial" and "Non-commercial" categories. That is, all market players got rid of the contracts for the Briton. It indicates a new drop in interest among traders in the pound. However, the mood of speculators on it remains confident "bullish," as the number of long contracts exceeds the number of short contracts twice.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar are recommended today in the event of a rebound of quotes from the level of 76.4% (1.3906) with targets of 1.3972 and 1.4024. It is recommended to sell the pound if the hourly chart closes below the level of 1.3906 with a target of 1.3800.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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