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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919), some growth, and then a return to the level of 1.1919. A new rebound of quotes from this level will again allow traders to count on some increase in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1985). Closing the pair's exchange rate under the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of the US currency and resume falling in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837). On Wednesday, June 23, business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors were released in the European Union. Both showed very decent values. None was lower than the value of May. The picture was less optimistic in the US, as the PMI index for the services sector fell from 70.4 points to 64.8. However, in any case, all four indices remained at exceptionally high positions. Let me remind you that any value above 50.0 is considered positive and indicates that the state of the sphere is improving.
Now the business activity indices in the US and the EU are between 60 and 70 points. Thus, even their decline did not particularly upset traders. The evening speech of ECB President Christine Lagarde did not give anything to traders. Christine Lagarde has recently spoken several times, and each time her rhetoric concerned the incomplete recovery of the European economy. Lagarde has already made it clear to traders several times that the curtailment of the PEPP program is not even considered in the near future. The program is planned until the end of March 2022 and will continue until the expiration of this period. Moreover, Lagarde did not rule out that the PEPP program will be extended for a longer period. Everything will depend on how fast the EU economy will recover after the crisis.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under a descending trend corridor. However, this does not change the essence of the graphical picture. Now the pair has performed an increase almost to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1977). However, there was no rebound. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. Closing the pair's exchange rate above the Fibo level of 50.0% will increase the probability of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.2065).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the decline in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 23, business activity indices were released in the European Union and the United States, which did not arouse interest among traders. As well as the evening speech of Christine Lagarde. Thus, the information background on this day was weak.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in GDP volume for the quarter (12:30 UTC).
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 UTC).
US - balance of foreign trade in goods (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On June 24, several quite important economic reports will be released in America, so today, the information background for the pair may be of medium strength.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report, which was released late, showed that speculators actively got rid of long and short contracts during the reporting week. A total of 20,645 long contracts and 32,360 short contracts were closed. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has again become more "bullish," which does not correspond to what is happening now for the euro/dollar pair. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that a strong drop in the quotes of the euro occurred on those days that were not taken into account in the last report, so to understand the mood of the major players, you need to wait for the next report to be released.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair if the quotes close at 61.8% (1.1919) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1837. I recommend buying the pair in case of a new rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1985 and 1.2051.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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