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To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
The lack of interest of traders in the European currency continues to remain at the same level. Unfortunately, nothing happens on the market that would arouse the interest of speculators. Given the low volatility of the market, we did not reach the levels indicated this morning. Most likely, the focus will be shifted to the second half of the day, when data on the American economy will be released, which should somehow shake the market. In any case, sellers continue to bend their line and push the euro gradually down even against the background of such a low trading volume. For the second half of the day, the technical picture has not changed in any way compared to the morning forecast.
As noted above, the focus during the American session will be placed on data on consumer confidence in the United States. If the indicator exceeds the forecasts of economists, the pressure on the euro may increase significantly. Until buyers regain control over the resistance of 1.1932, it won't be easy to talk about the growth of the euro. Only a breakout and consolidation at this level with a reverse test from top to bottom forms a signal to open long positions in the expectation of resuming the upward trend to the area of the last week's maximum of 1.1974. Only a breakdown of this area with a similar consolidation will form an additional entry point for purchases, which will lead EUR/USD to new local highs in the area of 1.2032 and 1.2063, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-range target will be the resistance of 1.2103. With the option of a further decline in the euro, it is best not to rush into purchases. Long positions can be opened if a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1885. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only after the first test of the monthly minimum of the 1.1852 area, counting on an upward rebound of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
The indicator of consumer confidence in the eurozone fully coincided with economists' forecasts, which did not allow euro buyers to return the market to their side. If the final report also coincides with economists' expectations, the pressure on the euro will only increase. The bears will fight to keep the market under their control, and they need to keep the pair below the resistance of 1.1932. If the euro rises during the US session, only the formation of a false breakdown, together with strong data on the US consumer confidence indicator, will form a signal to sell the euro to fall to the lower border of the 1.1885 side channel. A break of this level and a test of it from the bottom up will return the pair to the downward trend formed after the Federal Reserve meeting, which will open the way to the minimum of 1.1852. Its breakdown will only be a matter of time. However, it is possible to open short positions only after updating this area from the bottom up, which will push the pair even lower to the support of 1.1805, where I recommend fixing the profits. If there is no bear activity in the area of 1.1932 this afternoon, I recommend selling EUR/USD only for a rebound from the resistance of 1.1974, or even higher - from the maximum of 1.2032, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points. The test of the 1.2032 level will put an "end" to all attempts of the bears to continue the downward trend.
Let me remind you that there were significant changes in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 22: long positions sharply decreased, and short ones increased. Such changes occurred after the Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates. Let me remind you that during the last meeting, the central bank made the first hints about an earlier increase in interest rates. Some members of the Fed expect such changes as early as 2022. It suggests that the regulator may begin to wind down its bond purchase program in the near future, which will strengthen the position of the US dollar on the world stage even more. However, the more the European currency falls in the near future, the higher the demand for it will be in anticipation of such measures from the European Central Bank, which has recently been acting on the example of the Fed and with a slight delay. This week, several important fundamental reports on the US labor market will be published. There will also be quite many speeches by the heads of the world's central banks that will help traders decide on the future course of monetary policy. Most likely, the trend for strengthening the US dollar will continue this week. However, it will be more and more difficult for euro sellers to push the pair down. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 210,816 to the level of 207,863, while short non-commercial positions increased from the level of 92,630 to 118,806. It should be understood that the latest data on activity in the euro manufacturing sector and the service sector indicated that the eurozone economy is aimed at strong growth in the summer, which will necessarily affect the prospects for its recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. It is the key to a medium-term upward trend in the European currency. Moreover, the total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 118,186 to the level of 89,057. The weekly closing price decreased from the level of 1.2121 to the level of 1.1912.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating pressure on the euro.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
Only a breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1932 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pair.
Description of indicators
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