01.07.202110:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on July 1, 2021

At yesterday's trading, the market closed the June trading. Thus, in today's review of the GBP/USD currency pair, we will consider what results they ended with for the British currency and what to expect from the price movement of the pound in the second summer month that has begun. However, before proceeding to the consideration of price charts, let's look at the economic calendar to look at yesterday's reports and identify data that may affect the price dynamics of this trading instrument today. Yesterday, the final data on UK GDP for the first quarter was published, which turned out to be very encouraging for fans of the British currency. Every quarter, the indicator came out worse than the forecast of minus 1.5% and amounted to minus 1.6%. In annual terms, GDP data for the first quarter coincided with forecasts and came out at the level of minus 6.1%. The American statistics turned out to be much more positive. We are talking about employment data from ADP, which was predicted at the level of 475 thousand but came out at the value of 692 thousand. Now it remains to wait for the official Friday data for June to understand the pace at which the American economy is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. In the meantime, to the price charts.

Monthly

After the May exit up from the monthly cloud of the Ichimoku indicator, it would seem that now it is unlikely that anything can prevent the further upward movement of the course. However, the June auction dispelled the hopes of buyers. As a result of the rather volatile trading on GBP/USD last month, the June trading ended with a fairly confident and strong decline. The pair returned to the Ichimoku cloud's limits and fell below the important technical and psychological level of 1.4000. It also closed last month's trading slightly below the 89 exponential moving average. Under the pressure of sellers, the strong technical level of 1.3860 could not resist, and the closing price of last month was at 1.3828. In general, according to the oldest timeframe, the most likely scenario for July trading is a downward one. Since from time to time, even with a very strong movement, corrective pullbacks occur, we will use them to open short positions on GBP/USD. At least the latest forecasts about the downward scenario for the pound/dollar pair and its sales are confirmed during trading.

Daily

If you look at the daily chart, it is immediately worth noting yesterday's trading and the circled candle, which was eventually formed. If you put it in one word, then yesterday it turned out to be a "draw." Let me remind you that the primary task of the bulls for the pound was to return the quote above the technical level of 1.3860 and close the session above this mark. As we can see, such attempts took place. However, they did not give the desired result. The players on the downgrade had their task, which was reduced to the breakdown of the support level of 1.3785. But it didn't work out for the bears either. After a decline to 1.3797, the pair quite predictably found quite strong support here and began to recover, eventually ending trading on the last day of June at 1.3828. At the end of the article, the pound/dollar pair shows a downward trend, trading near 1.3806. Thus, the tasks of the opposing sides remain the same. Now briefly about the prospects. In case of a breakout of 1.3860, the pair can rise to 1.3890 and 1.3918, where the red Tenkan line and the black 89 EMA are located. If the pound bears manage to push through the support at 1.3785, their next targets may be 1.3715 and 1.3670, where the further direction of this trading instrument will be decided. Given the far from detailed technical picture and yesterday's Doji candle, I suggest staying out of the market for now. After clear signals, we will already think and open trading positions on the pound.