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Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was trading very weakly on Thursday. Unfortunately, it is still impossible to form a trend line or channel on the 30-minute timeframe, so it is recommended to trade on the 5-minute timeframe. In general, we can say that the downward trend continues, however, due to the weak volatility on the 30-minute timeframe, it is quite difficult to trade in any case. Several important reports were published in the European Union and the United States, as well as a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. Therefore, novice traders should be very careful about trading, since almost during each signal on the 5-minute timeframe, a report was published or there was another important event. Based on this, most of the signals should be filtered.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Seven trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe during the day, and the ticks mark the time when important reports were published or important fundamental events took place. For example, the first two signals - in the form of a breakthrough of the 1.1851 level - should have been unambiguously filtered out, since at that time Lagarde delivered a speech in the European Union and the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector was published. Although in fact there were no strong movements at that time, there could have been, so there was no need to risk it. Then a buy signal was formed near the same level at 1.1851, and half an hour later there was a repeated signal in the form of a rebound from this level. Novice traders could work out these signals. After they were formed, the price went up only 26 points, but reached the nearest level of 1.1882, from which the price rebounded, immediately forming a sell signal. The long position should have been closed around the 1.1882 level, so beginners could have earned around 20 points in profit. It was not worth working out the sell signal, since immediately after its formation, a report on applications for unemployment benefits was published in the United States. However, firstly, this is not the most significant report, and secondly, by that time the signal had already been generated, so it was possible to take a risk by setting Stop Loss above the level of 1.1882. As you can see, subsequently the price continued to move down and dropped back to the level of 1.1851, allowing newcomers to earn around 20 more points. Several more signals were formed near the level of 1.1851, but they definitely should not have been worked out, since the time was already approaching nightfall.
Trading tips for Friday:
The downward trend remains on the 30-minute timeframe, but rather weak and uncertain. At this time, there is still no trend line or channel, so it is not recommended to use the MACD indicator to track signals before they are formed. It is recommended to trade from the levels 1.1800, 1.1837, 1.1851 and 1.1882 on the 5-minute timeframe. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. At the 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level if it is not too close or too far away. If located - then you should act according to the situation. Lagarde is set to speak again in the European Union on Friday, and the most important reports will be published in the United States, including the unemployment rate and NonFarm Payrolls. All US reports will be published at the same time, therefore, at the beginning of the US session, increased attention and the presence of Stop Loss on open transactions is required.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels. Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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