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05.07.202111:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of the US market (07/05/2021)

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Exchange Rates 05.07.2021 analysis

US stocks posted strong growth on Friday. Dow Jones rose 0.4%, while both S&P 500 and Nasdaq jumped 0.8%.

Tech stocks were the ones who performed best, pushing Nasdaq 3% higher than its long-term highs last February and April. Dow Jones also reached its high last June, which is only 1% short to the yearly high.

Apparently, the sharp increase was driven by the decision of the Lower House of Congress to pass the Biden administration's new $ 715 billion spending plan. Also, the recovery of the US economy is also progressing smoothly, with the labor market now being in good shape.

And despite investor concerns about growing inflation, the Federal Reserve is still firm in their stance on monetary policy.

On a different note, contrary to the increase in the US market, Asian markets posted a decline this morning, with Japan indices falling 0.6% and China indices slipping 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the oil market remained rallying, which resulted to Brent trading at $76.30 and WTI at $75.30. But on Friday, the situation may change dramatically if OPEC fails to agree on a 700,000 bpd increase in output that UAE is requesting. The initial plan of the coalition is just 0.4 million bpd, so the proposed change on it will be discussed by the members starting today.

With regards to the world's epidemiological situation, latest reports say the total number of new infections remain two times lower than record high, but is not decreasing further. UK has approximately 24,000 new cases a day, while US and EU countries have significantly lower incidences.

Going back to the markets, S&P 500 is currently at 4.352 points, but because of US holiday (Independence Day), it is expected to range from 4.300 - 4.360 points at the close of the trading sessions. No need to worry though because the market will remain calm this week despite upcoming economic reports such as data on business activity, FOMC minutes and US employment.

As for the USD index, it slipped slightly to 92.20 points, after demand for dollar dropped a bit on Friday. Now, it is expected to range from 92.00 - 92.50 points.

Accordingly, USD/CAD also dipped to 1.2340 and is projected to range from 1.2220-1.2400.

Conclusion: With the US market at yearly highs, opportunities for growth are open. But the slump in investor activity and high stock prices make the market highly vulnerable to an unexpected strong correction any time, which means that it is definitely not worth buying right now.

Jozef Kovach
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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