14.07.202119:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 14. UK inflation does not want to lag behind US inflation

The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument began to differ from the Euro/Dollar. Presumably, the construction of a new upward set of waves began. In the last few days, at least, the instrument has been rising more than falling. Three waves in this new upward trend are already visible, but wave c may turn out to be much longer than it looks now. I also note that the instrument continues to move mainly in corrective structures, which does not make it easier to work with it. Nevertheless, one has to rely on the wave counting that exists. According to it, it is more likely now that the instrument quotes will continue to rise with targets located near the high of wave e, the last wave of the previous upward trend section. At the same time, a successful attempt to break through waves b or c will indicate the complication of the entire downward trend section, which began on June 1.

The Pound/Dollar instrument gained about 90 basis points during Wednesday, after which the quotes began to move away from the highs reached. However, the news background of today can be interpreted in different ways. In the morning, a report was released in the UK, which showed that British inflation continues to accelerate as well as the US. Thus, if the dollar grew yesterday, today it is the British pound. Everything is logical. However, there is another possible version. Yesterday, the markets did not quite rightly buy the dollar, as rising inflation is more bad for the economy than good. Then today they started to win back yesterday's positions, and British inflation has nothing to do with it.

One way or another, but the last few days, the instrument has often changed direction. The consumer price index in the UK has already increased to 2.5% YoY, and core inflation to 2.3% YoY. Meanwhile, 30,000 coronavirus cases were recorded in the UK for the seventh day in a row. The last day became an anti-record one since the beginning of January 2021, as 36,600 cases were recorded. This is even though 80% of British adults have already received at least one dose of the vaccine. By July 19, all restrictions related to the pandemic are expected to be lifted in the country. Meanwhile, some countries in Europe, on the contrary, are tightening quarantine. These are Greece, Holland, Spain, and Portugal, which have also seen an increase in cases in recent weeks. Markets have so far reacted very modestly to these sad events.

At this time, the wave pattern has cleared up a bit, but it remains very complex. The construction of the downward trend is supposedly completed. Thus, I recommend now to buy the instrument again with targets located above the 40th figure, for each MACD signal "up". If the instrument manages to break through the 40th figure, the upward wave set will take on a more convincing form.

The upward part of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks rather complex, as there is no impulse movement now. At this time, the construction of the downward trend is also presumably completed, so we can expect a new increase in quotes to the maximum of wave e.