17.07.202117:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The calm before the storm

The main cryptocurrency continues its downward trend. There is no doubt that the "bullish" trend is complete. However, we would like to mention a few important points that can also help traders and investors. The first thing to note is that the volatility of bitcoin has sunk very much in recent weeks. If earlier the cryptocurrency could pass from the minimum to the maximum of the day $ 5000 - $ 8000, now the volatility is $ 1500 - $ 2000 per day. It suggests that overall market activity is falling. The second thing that should be noted is the lack of supporting factors. Previously, bitcoin has always found a reason for optimism. Now, even the forecasts of pseudo-experts of the cryptocurrency market from the category of "$ 100,000 by the end of 2021" do not impress anyone. Perhaps someday, bitcoin will cost $ 100,000 per coin. However, it is not in the coming months. Third, institutional investors cannot maintain the exchange rate of the main cryptocurrency. Again, it is no secret that institutions make up approximately 50% of the bitcoin market. However, as practice shows, even the sale of 10-20 thousand coins (out of a total of more than 18 million) can lower the rate. Even small sales lead to a drop in the cryptocurrency exchange rate. It suggests that the market is very "thin" now, and sales from retail investors are quite enough for the quotes of the "bitcoin" to continue to fall.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb recently wrote an article about bitcoin, in which he once again criticized the "black gold." In his opinion, bitcoin has completely failed as a means of hedging risks and as a currency. He called bitcoin "an extremely fragile asset that needs constant interest in itself." Taleb believes that the real price of bitcoin is zero. Unlike gold and other precious metals (and even just assets), the price of bitcoin depends very much on the market mood. "Bitcoin cannot be used as a protection against systemic risk," Taleb said. Also, the author of "Black Swan" believes that the world needs one or two decentralized currencies. However, bitcoin cannot be such a currency because of its extreme volatility. Thus, we expect a further decline in the quotes of the "bitcoin." We also remind you that in all previous cases, when the upward trend ended, bitcoin subsequently lost up to 90% of its value.

In technical terms, on the 4-hour timeframe, bitcoin quotes were fixed below the ascending trend line and below the Ichimoku cloud. Also, the price has fallen to $ 31,100 per coin and is trying to overcome it for the third day. If this overcoming happens, bitcoin will only hold $ 29,700 from a new collapse of quotes. Overcoming it will open the way for sellers to the level of $ 24,350.