19.07.202113:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on July 19 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1797 and recommended that you make entry decisions from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is visible how after the breakdown of 1.1797, the bears are rapidly pushing the pair to the support level of 1.1773. Unfortunately, the reverse test of 1.1797 from the bottom up did not occur, so I missed the euro's fall and did not sell. Nothing happened to form at the level of 1.1773, so the technical picture for the second half of the day was completely revised.

The lack of important fundamental statistics did not benefit the European currency, so the bulls will focus in the second half of the day on protecting the support of 1.1766, which was formed during the European session after updating last week's minimum. The formation of a false breakout on it will lead to the entry point into long positions. In this scenario, the bulls will emphasize the breakout of the resistance of 1.1790, just above which the moving averages are playing on the side of the sellers of the euro. The absence of important fundamental statistics in the second half of the day may already play on the bulls' side. A test of the level of 1.1790 from top to bottom will lead to the formation of an additional entry point into long positions, which will open a direct road to the maximum of 1.1817. A more distant target will be the level of 1.1849, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pressure on EUR/USD returns in the second half of the day, and the bulls do not show themselves in the area of 1.1766, it is best not to rush with purchases. The optimal scenario will be the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1740. It is possible to buy the pair immediately for a rebound, expecting a reverse upward movement of 15-20 points within the day only from a larger minimum of 1.1715.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears are trying to regain control of the market, which they had all last week. A breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.1790 still leave control on their side. However, forming a false breakdown at this level in the second half of the day creates an excellent signal to open short positions in the expectation of a further decline of the pair to the support of 1.1766. A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions with a longer-term goal in the area of 1.1740, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session and the lack of sellers' activity at the level of 1.1790, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1817. However, it is also possible to sell the pair if a false breakdown is formed. I recommend opening short positions immediately for a rebound only from the larger resistance of 1.1849, calculating a downward correction of 15-20 points.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 6, it was possible to observe a reduction in the overall positive net position due to the sharp growth of short positions. This balance of forces does not consider the growth of the pair, which was observed at the end of last week after the European Central Bank raised its inflation target to 2.0% and admitted that it would allow exceeding the target for some time in the future. It turned out to be enough for euro buyers to start building up long positions. Now the focus will be on the meeting of the European regulator, which will be held on July 22, and at which changes in monetary policy will be announced. Until then, any decline in the European currency will be considered a good reason to increase long positions. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from 209,058 to the level of 212,998, while short non-commercial positions increased from 121,912 to the level of 135,808. This week, there are no important fundamental statistics on the eurozone. Thus, the focus will be shifted to inflation in the United States and retail sales volume. The further direction of the market depends on these indicators. But whatever they are, the key to the growth of the European currency is the economic recovery in the summer, so I recommend betting on the growth of risky assets. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 87,146 to the level of 77,190. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1928 to the level of 1.1862.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a further decline in the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

In the case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1825 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.