21.07.202112:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Market rushes between the desire to rise and the need to further decline

Following Monday's strong sell-off, the stock markets noted the rebound on Tuesday expected by investors, but nothing special happened in other markets.

As a result of trading, European and American stock indices increased quite noticeably, which was expected after the collapse of the major stock indexes. Now, the question is this really a local reversal or not?

In our opinion, it is still difficult to judge this. A rebound after a strong decline is usually natural, but it is not worth considering the overall situation as radically improved yet. The problems of the coronavirus pandemic have not disappeared anywhere. There is also a risk of an earlier change in the course of the Fed's monetary policy amid inflation that has soared to a 13-year level. Nevertheless, there is also a positive aspect that can support stock markets primarily in the US – corporate reporting of companies, which is expected to be generally positive and can give a new impulse for the demand of company shares.

What should be expected in the oil and currency markets?

We believe that the stabilization of crude oil prices will be temporary. Today, data on oil and petroleum products reserves will be published. It is assumed that the reserves for the past week will fall by 4.466 million barrels against their decline of 7.897 million barrels a week earlier. If the data does not disappoint, and the mood in the stock markets remains positive, this may push up the quotes of crude oil.

On the other hand, everything in the currency market is still extremely boring. According to the dynamics of the ICE index, the US dollar continues to gradually rise, breaking through the level of 93.00 points this week. The factor of high inflation, as well as the persisting risks of an earlier change in the Fed's monetary exchange rate than its representatives predict, are the main reasons supporting it.

In general, a smooth upward trend in the USD rate is expected to continue, possibly until the publication of updated employment and inflation data in America.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair continued to decline amid the publication of negative Australian retail sales and in general, the intensifying pressure of the US dollar. The price fell to the level of 0.7315, which may become the basis for a further decline to 0.6265, and then to 0.7220.

The EUR/USD pair is trading below the level of 1.1770 on the wave of the US dollar's strengthening. We expect its further decline to the level of 1.1685.