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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair again showed absolutely nothing on Monday. The quotes continue to move along the level of 1.1770 for almost two weeks. If there was a certain downward momentum at first, now there is no momentum at all. From time to time, traders make very sluggish attempts to change something. However, they all end in nothing. It is noteworthy that there are practically no economic reports in the last week and a half. We can even conclude that traders are deliberately unwilling to take risks and are waiting for new statistics or the Fed meeting, which will be held tomorrow. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that any pair, including the euro/dollar, shows movement not only when there are economic reports or other important events. Thus, it's not about the lack of an information background.
Therefore, I conclude that now is just a period when most traders are resting. There's nothing you can do about it. It remains only to wait for this period to end. A little later today, a report on the volume of orders for long-term goods will be released in America. Potentially quite an important report. However, it seems that traders will still not "peel off" the pair from the level of 1.1700. Thus, the hope now is only for the FOMC meeting tomorrow, since this is a very important event, and it has a real opportunity to move the pair from the dead point. By and large, everything will depend on what Fed President Jerome Powell says tomorrow. If his rhetoric continues to contain hints about the possible completion of the QE program ahead of schedule, then the dollar may grow a little more. If not, and his rhetoric will be as "dovish" as possible, then you can count on some growth of the pair, which will simultaneously bring it out of its stupor.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes continue to move along the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782), which almost coincides with the level of 1.1772 on the hourly chart. Thus, nothing new can be added after studying the 4-hour chart. Even divergences do not make any sense now since they are very weak in the side corridor. Therefore, I recommend waiting for the Fed meeting and its results. Perhaps something will change after it.
Overview of fundamentals:
On July 26, there was no single economic report or other events in America and the European Union. Thus, there was no information background on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 UTC).
US - indicator of consumer confidence (14:00 UTC).
On July 27, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is absolutely empty. In the US, two reports will be released, which will most likely be ignored by traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the last reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders again became more "bearish." Major players opened 7,083 short contracts on the euro currency and closed 5,643 long contracts. Thus, in the last five weeks, the number of short contracts focused on the hands of speculators has increased by 65 thousand, and the number of long contracts has decreased by 5 thousand. Therefore, a further fall in the European currency is very likely. However, over the past week, the euro/dollar pair has not continued falling quotes.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations to traders:
At this time, the movements are very weak and in a sideways corridor, and the information background does not help traders in any way. I recommend waiting for the pair to start moving in the usual mode.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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