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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair continued its growth process on Tuesday after closing above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1704) in the direction of the level of 1.1772. The activity of traders in the first two days of the week was low. Nevertheless, the European currency continued to grow. The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1772 will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0%. Closing quotes above the level of 1.1772 will increase the probability of further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837). The current movement of the euro/dollar pair fully corresponds to the information background. During the first two days of the week, there was practically no important news and reports. On Monday, the business activity indices for America and the European Union were released. However, they practically did not interest traders. On Tuesday, nothing was interesting at all, and today traders will be able to pay attention only to the report on orders for long-term goods in the United States.
Since there is practically no news right now, and an important speech by Jerome Powell is due to take place at the end of the week, it seems that traders are already looking at Friday's event. Let me remind you that a lot will depend on the speech of Jerome Powell for the US currency. New "hawkish" notes in his speech can restore traders' faith in the US dollar, and the currency itself can resume its growth. However, recently, an increasing number of analysts believe that the Fed president will not force events and announce a reduction in the volume of the asset purchase program on Friday. In recent weeks, the number of diseases has been growing in the United States. Many experts fear that the economy will begin to slow down again, which questions the feasibility of curtailing the QE program. Thus, most likely, on Friday, the Fed president will do without loud statements. Nevertheless, any half-token can be used by traders for active trading.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the EU currency after the formation of a bullish divergence at the MACD indicator, and the growth process continued in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this level will work in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1606). A close above 76.4% will increase the probability of further growth towards the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1890). There are no emerging divergences today.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 UTC).
On August 25, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is empty, and in the United States, there will be only one report. It means that the influence of the information background will be very weak today. Thus, the pair's movements may be very weak again today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders during the reporting week became more "bullish." Major players opened 21,602 long contracts on the euro and closed 4,359 short contracts. Thus, bull traders behaved more actively than bears for the first time in the last two months. A further fall in the European currency is now not as likely as it was a week earlier. At the moment, the advantage remains in the hands of investors in the European currency since they have more long contracts than short contracts on their hands. Based on this, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders, which is the most important, remains "bullish."
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend staying in the pair's purchases with the target of 1.1772 on the hourly chart since the closing was made above the level of 1.1704. New purchases - with a target of 1.1837 if a close is made above the level of 1.1772. Sales are recommended if there is a rebound from the level of 1.1772 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1704.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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