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EUR/USD – 1H.
On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process toward the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919). However, by the end of the day, a reversal was made in favor of the US currency, and the process of falling in the direction of the ascending trend line began, which still keeps the current mood of traders "bullish." The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from this line will favor the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8%. Closing quotes below the trend line will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the level of 1.1772. On Friday, the information background was very abundant. And it is very strange to see that the euro/dollar pair managed to cover a distance of only 44 points for the whole day. Even if the European reports did not interest traders, they could not pass by such important data as the US unemployment report, the ISM index, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
There was a small jump in quotes during the publication of American statistics. However, it was very weak for the importance that even the Nonfarm Payrolls report alone represented. However, these are the realities today. Traders continue to work in half-hands, which leads to very weak movements of the pair. The index of business activity in the services sector of the European Union and the volume of retail sales did not interest traders at all on Friday. If the business activity index did not change much in August, retail sales fell by 2.3% m/m, which traders did not expect. However, there was no fall in the European currency at this time. There was not even a hint of it. As I have already said, the American statistics still caused a small reaction. Although the unemployment rate in the US fell to 5.2%, and the number of Nonfarm was 273,000. The first report was better than the forecasts, the second - worse. Thus, they could overlap each other. After all, not only was the reaction weak after all the data, the euro/dollar pair also did not change its course too much after them.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes increased to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890) and rebound from it. Thus, a reversal in favor of the US currency is now possible and a slight fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782). Closing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 61.8% will increase the probability of continuing growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.1978). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On September 6, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are empty. Thus, there will be no information background today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bearish" again during the reporting week. Major players closed 1,968 long contracts on the euro and opened 11,139 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 192 thousand, and the total number of short contracts increased to 180 thousand. For several months, speculators have been actively getting rid of the euro currency, but at the same time, the EU currency itself is falling very slowly and weakly. Moreover, in the last couple of weeks, it has been growing in pair with the dollar, despite the indications of COT reports.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend repurchasing the pair with a target of 1.1919 on the hourly chart if there is a rebound from the trend line. I recommend selling if there is closure under the trend line on the hourly chart, with the target level of 1.1772.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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