14.09.202110:58 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil deficit may continue for several more months

OPEC said the world will continue to face supply shortages in the coming months even if its members increase production. This is because demand is recovering and production from the North Sea to the United States and Mexico is lower than expected.

The monthly report released on Monday indicated that the global recovery in the first half of the year significantly boosted oil demand.

Global appetite reportedly rose by 260,000 barrels this year due to supply disruptions. But oil production in North America was limited due to Hurricane Ida and a fire on an offshore platform in Mexico. North Sea production this quarter was also lower than expected.

And according to OPEC forecasts, demand will skyrocket further to 1.12 million barrels per day in 2022, while consumption will grow by 4.2 million b/d to 100.8 million b/d. This is 80,000 barrels higher than last month's estimate and exceeds the pandemic level.

So even if OPEC production rose by 151,000 to 26.76 million b / d in August, this is still well below the average global demand in the third quarter. But it is enough to gradually restore idle production by 400,000 b / d monthly in accordance with the July OPEC agreement.

This shows that it is not only non-OPEC countries that are experiencing production problems. Although they were allowed to increase production in August, several African member countries posted marginal increases, and Nigeria's production fell by 114,000 barrels per day.