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EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair attempted to grow to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1837) on Wednesday. However, it was not able to pass 30 points up. Even a reversal in favor of the US currency as such did not occur, although, by the end of the day, the quotes fell slightly. In general, I can say that now the euro/dollar pair is simply standing in one place. And this has been going on for several days. I can't call the information background this week weak or absent. On Monday, Christine Lagarde spoke. On Tuesday, a report on inflation in the United States was released. And yesterday, reports on industrial production were released. However, we see that at this time, traders refuse to trade the euro/dollar pair. It is impossible to influence this reluctance to trade, so readers have a choice: continue trading in conditions that do not imply active trading or wait for the pair to start moving.
Yesterday, the report on industrial production in the European Union turned out to be very positive. The indicator grew by 7.7% y/y and by 1.5% m/m. Traders expected to see 6.0% and 0.6%, respectively. Thus, the European currency could show growth in the morning. In general, it grew by 20 points, but this was all the movement during the day. The US manufacturing report was less interesting, as its value coincided with traders' expectations. And no other important information was received yesterday. Thus, we have to wait for the Fed meeting, which is due to take place next week and hope that an important decision will be made during it, which traders will not be able to ignore. It all comes down to whether the Fed will decide to announce the beginning of the curtailment of the asset purchase program or will wait with it. Only the adoption of this decision can cause a reaction.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1782), a reversal in favor of the EU currency, and began the growth process toward the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1890). Although this movement can be called a "growth process" only formally, the quotes practically do not move. Fixing the pair's exchange rate under the level of 76.4% will work in favor of the US currency and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1606). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (12:00 UTC).
US - change in retail trade volume (12:30 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
On September 16, the European Union and the United States will host a speech by the ECB president in the European Union. An important report on retail trade will be released in the United States. I can't say that these events will interest traders and trade more actively, but these events should not be overlooked. The information background today will be average in strength.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders during the reporting week became more "bullish." Major players closed 837 long contracts on the euro and as many as 16,528 short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts in the hands of speculators decreased to 191 thousand, and the total number of short contracts - to 163 thousand. Over the past few months, the "Non-commercial" category of traders has been actively getting rid of long contracts on the euro currency and increasing short. However, at the same time, the euro has grown very slightly during this time. A sharp drop in the number of short contracts may mean that speculators are preparing for new growth of the European currency.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend buying a pair with a target of 1.1837 when the quotes rebound from the level of 1.1772 on the hourly chart. Or when closing above the level of 1.1837 with a target of 1.1919. I recommended selling if there is a rebound from the upper line of the corridor on the hourly chart, with the target level of 1.1772. Now, these deals can still be kept open.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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