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The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same. The pair has been moving more actively in the last couple of days, which has led to the complication of wave b. This is very bad for the current counting, since wave b has already turned out to be quite deep compared to wave a. Therefore, a further decline will mean that the corrective wave as part of the next correction section of the trend may end near the low of wave a, or that the entire downward section of the trend may resume its construction, which will significantly complicate the wave counting. So far, I consider this scenario as a backup, but the decline in the quotes on Thursday, Friday, and Monday makes us treat it more carefully. Interestingly, the US currency could not increase for a long time, but in the last few days, it is growing by leaps and bounds without any catalyst. Thus, the news background may interfere with the execution of the current wave plan.
There was no news background for the EUR/USD pair on Monday. Nevertheless, the pair fell by 30 basis points. Compared to Thursday or Friday, the amplitude on Monday was extremely low. Still, the demand for the dollar continued to increase. I believe that the fact of a decrease in the growth rate of the US currency can be considered a positive moment for the prospects of preserving the integrity of the current wave count. Wave b has already turned out to be very deep, so the markets need to urgently reduce the demand for the dollar, otherwise, the entire wave count may collapse. Due to the absence of important events today and tomorrow, all hope is on the announcement of the Fed meeting results on Wednesday.
The markets are now confident that during this event, either a readiness will be announced to start curtailing the program of assistance to the economy, or a specific date will be named when the Fed will begin to reduce the volume of bond repurchases. In both cases, the markets may well expect a new increase in the dollar. Therefore, this week the news background will resist the wave counting. However, there is another option in which the Fed will again take a wait-and-see position and will not announce the curtailment of the stimulus program. This can be a big disappointment for all buyers of the US currency, and in this case, the dollar can seriously fall, and the EUR/USD can grow.
Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward wave b may be completed soon. Therefore, I still expect an increase in the quotes of the pair and advise buying with targets located near the 1.1965 and 1.2036, which corresponds to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels, for each MACD signal "up." As a confirmation of this assumption, we can wait for a new successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level or an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level. It is best to do this since wave b may take on a more complex form and even the entire wave layout may change if the decline continues.
The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended in the same place as the previous three-wave section.
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