23.09.202110:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US stock market on September 23, 2021

S&P500

The Fed surprised the markets.

All major US indices are up around 1% (S&P500 +0.95%) amid an unexpectedly soft Fed decision. However, they still remain significantly below the highs of the year and September, so the correction continues.

Asian indexes closed Thursday's trading session mixed. China indexes rose 0.4%, while Japan indicators dropped 0.7%.

Commodity market: crude oil prices rose by around $1 following the Fed's decisions. Brent was trading at 76.30 a barrel on Thursday morning.

COVID-19 worldwide: the number of coronavirus cases remains at uncomfortably high levels. Yesterday, the number of new infections in the world increased by 528K, while in the United States it rose by 133K. The fatality rate in the US also remains high, with 2,200 deaths yesterday.

The S&P500 index is at 4,395 and is expected to trade in the 4350–4440 range. The Fed meeting took place yesterday. It was the major event of the month for the market. It was expected the Federal Reserve to announce a reduction in its $120 billion in monthly asset purchases. The Fed was projected to cut purchases each month by $15 billion till the middle of 2022. However, it managed to surprise the markets. In their statement, the Federal Reserve System did not mention tapering. In a speech, the Fed chair confirmed that the plan remains valid. According to Jerome Powell, the rate could start to rise as early as 2022, but so far only to 0.3%. The Fed lowered the US economic growth forecast significantly to 5.9%, from a 7% estimate in June. Core PCE inflation is now anticipated at 3.7% this year, up from the previous estimate of 3%. Unemployment is forecast to average 4.8% this year. The Fed has in fact admitted that high inflation is becoming an increasingly important problem. But Powell still insists that this is a temporary phenomenon and inflation will decline to an acceptable level in the coming months. The issue of tapering the economic support will be announced in November. The market is pondering the Fed's decisions and remains in a state of correction. Today, investors will get new US employment data for the week, which could influence the market's direction.

The US dollar index is trading at 93.20 and is expected to be in the 92.90–93.50 range. The Fed's decisions failed to provide impetus to currency pairs.

USD/CAD is trading at 1.2720 and is likely to be in the 1.2700–1.2770 range. USD/CAD pair is under downward pressure from higher oil prices amid uncertainty over the US dollar.

Conclusion: Investors are unable to assess the Fed's decisions due to too much information. There is reason to expect market movement today.