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To open long positions on GBP/USD, it is required:
In the first half of the day, an excellent signal was formed to buy the pound. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. A false breakout at 1.3587 formed an excellent entry point into long positions in the continuation of the upward correction of the pair, which led to the formation of a signal to buy the pound. The pair immediately recovered to the resistance area of 1.3634, which brought about 40 points of profit. Now the emphasis is placed on the data on the American labor market since it is on them that the further growth of the pound depends.
All that buyers need now is an increase above the resistance of 1.3634, which may occur in the event of weak data on the US labor market. Only such a scenario will help build a continuation of the upward correction observed in the first half of the day. A breakout and a reverse test of 1.3634 from top to bottom form a buy signal for GBP/USD, which will push the pair to the area of 1.3673. A test of this area will be evidence of a return to the bull market. Its breakdown will open a direct path to the resistance of 1.3726, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the pressure on GBP/USD returns during the US session, I advise you not to rush into purchases. An important task for the bulls will be to protect the support of 1.3587, which they successfully coped with within the first half of the day. Only the formation of a false breakdown there forms a good entry point into long positions. Otherwise, the optimal scenario for buying will be a test of the next support of 1.3545. However, it is best to wait for the formation of a false breakdown. I advise you to look at long positions of GBP/USD immediately for a rebound only from the minimum of 1.3491, based on an upward correction of 25-30 points within a day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Bears are waiting for data on the US labor market and are counting on strong indicators, as only this will allow them to cope with the active pressure of buyers of the pound. The main task for the second half of the day for sellers will be to protect 1.3634. The formation of a false breakdown at this level will lead to a new signal to open short positions based on the downward correction observed in the first half of the day. The sellers' next task will be to regain control over the support level of 1.3587, which they failed to do today during the European session. A breakthrough of this area and its reverse test from the bottom up will form a signal to open short positions, expecting a decline in the pair to 1.3545. The breakdown of this range also forms another entry point into short positions to demolish the bulls' stop orders and a larger fall to the minimum of 1.3491, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a recovery of the pound and the absence of those willing to sell above 1.3634, as well as weak data on the pace of recovery of the American labor market, only the formation of a false breakdown in the area of the next resistance of 1.3673 will signal the opening of short positions in GBP/USD. I advise selling the pound immediately for a rebound from a larger resistance of 1.3726, or even higher - from a maximum of 1.3762, counting the pair's rebound down by 20-25 points inside the day.
The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for September 28 recorded both a sharp increase in short ones and an increase in those who bet on further growth of the pound. The British pound has been falling almost all week amid the fuel crisis that has flared up. Problems in supply chains led to disruptions in fuel supply to gas stations, and an acute shortage of drivers forced British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to involve the military in this. The corresponding reaction of buyers of risky assets followed immediately, and the pound collapsed against the US dollar. Strong data on the growth of the UK economy in the 2nd quarter of this year, which were revised upwards, slightly helped the pound. However, the pressure on the pair decreased slightly, and traders recalled the statements of the Bank of England on monetary policy, that decisions on its change could be made as early as November this year. The only problem that stands in the way of the bulls remains the US Federal Reserve, which, although it is not going to raise interest rates, is also on the path of tightening monetary policy. I have repeatedly advised buying the pound with its significant corrections. So it happened last week. After a sharp decline, traders took advantage of the moment and bought it off at attractive prices. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from 51,910 to the level of 57,923.
In contrast, short non-commercial positions jumped from the level of 52,128 to the level of 55,959, which led to a partial increase in the advantage of buyers over sellers. As a result, the non-commercial net position regained its positive value and grew from -218 to the level of 1964. The closing price of GBP/USD rose to 1.3700 against 1.3662 at the end of the week.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating buyers of the pound to return to the market.
Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.3634 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pound. A break of the lower limit in the area of 1.3587 will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
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