21.10.202109:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US stock market on October 21, 2021

S&P500

The US stock market has reached year highs.

On Wednesday, US stock indices mostly extended gains: the Dow added 0.4%, the NASDAQ was down by 0.1%, and the S&P500 grew by 0.4%.

On Thursday morning, however, S&P500 futures dropped by 0.2%. Likewise, Japan's indices plunged by 1.8%, and China's by 0.2%.

Covid-19 worldwide: The current infection rate is approximately 40% down from the third wave's highs. Above 450K new cases were registered worldwide. The US and the UK reported +80K and +49K new infections respectively. Experts report a new even more infectious coronavirus strain than Delta. In the US, the regulatory authorities are preparing to approve vaccination of schoolchildren in early November with a specially developed Pfizer vaccine.

Energy. Oil is trading at its highs. Yesterday, Brent closed above $85 and traded at $85.40 early on Thursday. The gas crisis in Europe is still ongoing. Gas futures on the ICE exchange are steady above $1,000. On Wednesday, the price closed at $1,100. It is reported that Russia and Gazprom will not increase gas supplies beyond the existing contracts unless Europe accelerates the certification and launch of Nord Stream 2. No official comments have been made.

The EU will discuss the energy crisis at the October 21-22 summit. Inflation in the EU has increased significantly and is likely to accelerate further amid rising energy prices. Current gas prices might halt economic growth in the EU, experts say.

The S&P500 is trading at 4,536 in the 4,500-4,560 range. On Wednesday, it almost reached its year high, the close as of September 2. Then, the market entered a correction. All in all, the US market fully recovered by the close on October 20. Technically, the market may well extend gains. At the same time, a pullback is expected to occur any time soon. The US stock market has been bullish for 6 trading sessions and has added over 5% since October 12. Yesterday, the Fed's Beige Book was published. According to the report, the economy continues to grow. However, its growth has clearly slowed compared to the previous quarter. Above all else, there is a shortage of qualified personnel across the US, and salaries of workers are growing steadily. All regions complain about high inflation. Since the report came out 2 weeks before the Fed's decision, there is almost no doubt that the regulator will announce tapering during the next meeting. Indeed, it is clearly necessary for the stability of the financial system and markets.

Tesla's net profit has soared 5 times in the 3 quarter from a year earlier, by $1.6 billion.

The recent EIA report logged an unexpected decrease in US fuel reserves: gasoline stocks fell by 5 million barrels and oil reserves dropped by 0.4 million barrels. Notably, fuel reserves had been expected to grow.

USDX is traded at 93.50 in the 93.20–93.80 range. The US dollar index is hovering around the lows of the mid-term range. The greenback is driven by tapering expectations.

USD/CAD is traded at 1.2330 in the 1.2290–2.2360 range. The pair is bearish. However, it may well rebound.

Conclusion: The US stock market is expected to bounce from year highs and then, extend gains, but its upside potential is limited.