25.10.202109:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Flurry of futures ETFs may be turning point for Bitcoin

Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, surpassed its all-time high last week, reaching new heights of around $67,000 per coin, up 50% from September 30. The bulls now see a path to $100,000.

Just a few weeks ago, Bitcoin was in the doghouse - hit by regulatory fears in the US, a crackdown in China, and mounting criticism over the carbon footprint of "miners" that process transactions and add new coins to the supply. But fear, uncertainty, and doubt have been swept away as Bitcoin is cracking one of Wall Street's favorite products, exchange-traded funds, opening a channel into a market worth $9 trillion. However, what is good for Wall Street is not always good for investors.

After years of false starts, a Bitcoin-futures-based exchange-traded fund, the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (ticker: BITO), debuted Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange. It racked up a record $1.1 billion in assets in two days, but it already has company. Another futures ETF, the Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy (BTF), was launched on the Nasdaq on Friday. Other futures ETFs that could win approval soon include funds from VanEck, AdvisorShares, and ARK 21Shares.

The flurry of futures ETFs may be a turning point for Bitcoin and the broader crypto investment space. Bitcoin came to life as a piece of a decentralized money-transfer system aimed at swiping power from central bank fiat money and the broader financial establishment. That ethos still prevails in crypto, which remains both threatening and alluring to Wall Street. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon recently described Bitcoin as "worthless," even as the firm's investment bank and wealth management divisions aim to profit off it.

"With a $2 trillion market value and 200 million users, the digital asset universe is too large to ignore," Alkesh Shah, head of the crypto strategy at Bank of America, observed.

"ETFs could be the next stage of crypto's colonization. Wall Street is eager to sell, trade, and create derivatives around the product, opening up new revenue streams," Ben Johnson, head of ETF research at Morningstar, said.

The real union of Bitcoin and ETFs would be funds that own the crypto directly, rather than futures - a market used to price commodities such as oil and wheat. ETFs with "physical" ownership of Bitcoin already trade in Canada, racking up $2 billion in assets. And they are far more efficient than futures funds, which come with unique drawbacks. While front-month futures tend to track spot prices closely, funds may fall far behind due to cost frictions, taxes, and limits on position sizes.

A physical Bitcoin ETF is not expected to be approved soon by US regulators, for both political and practical reasons. However, the crypto markets are rising on hopes that even futures-based ETFs are a big win for the industry, pushing crypto deeper into the financial heartland. Other cryptos are rallying, including the second-largest, Ethereum.

More than 20% of advisory clients own Bitcoin, but only 3.5% keep it with an advisor, according to a survey conducted this year for the crypto investment firm NYDIG. Moreover, 73% of clients would move their crypto to an advisor if possible, the survey found. "It's a step in the right direction - allowing advisors to access Bitcoin through traditional financial-services plumbing," Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, an advisory firm in Kansas, said.

For regulators tasked with surveillance, Bitcoin remains something of a cipher. Yes, they have had some success tracking illegal activity, notably in recovering payments for ransomware attacks. And yes, transactions are all visible on the blockchain. But the movement of cash to crypto and back to cash, especially overseas, runs through a digital labyrinth. Crypto can also hop from country to country in wallets that resemble suitcases of cash condensed into thumbnail drives.