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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and anchored under the upward trend corridor. Thus, the mood of traders changed to "bearish", and the quotes of the pound performed a drop to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3722). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will allow us to expect some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3795). Closing below it will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 50.0% (1.3663). The information background for the pound was also absent yesterday. Nevertheless, various important information is often received from the UK, which may affect the positions of the pound. This time, it did not come from the European Union. However, it concerned the UK. European Commissioner Thierry Breton said that leaving the European Union led Britain to a real economic catastrophe.
He drew attention to the shortage of goods in stores, problems with the delivery of fuel to gas stations, a shortage of nurses, movers, waiters, and drivers, as well as problems with the construction of new facilities due to a shortage of workers at construction sites. Breton also drew attention to the fact that the British government promised prosperity to the British. However, the country faced serious problems that have not yet been solved. Let me remind you that a few weeks ago, the UK faced a fuel shock. There is gasoline in the country. However, there are no drivers to deliver it to the gas station. We had to urgently involve the military to solve this problem. In addition, there is a shortage of some goods and food in the UK, and fuel shortages are forcing the British to stock up for the future with everything that can end up in stores. Therefore, by Christmas, experts predict even more empty shelves in stores and a new shortage of gasoline. The pound, which has been feeling great in recent weeks, is starting a new decline, which can be supported by the negative information from Britain.
GBP/USD – 4H.
The GBP/USD pair on the 4-hour chart performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor. Thus, the process of falling quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3642). There are no emerging divergences today. Buy signals or signs of the end of the fall. The mood of traders has changed to "bearish" and two charts are already talking about this.
News calendar for the USA and the UK:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 UTC).
US - balance of foreign trade in goods (12:30 UTC).
UK - speech by the Chancellor of the Exchequer of Britain with the budget plan for the upcoming financial year.
On Wednesday, the information background in the United States will be weak, as only two reports will be released, one of which is far from the most important (the balance of foreign trade). In the UK, Finance Minister Rishi Sunak will present a draft budget for the next fiscal year, which will begin in April.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from October 19 on the pound showed that the mood of the major players has become much more "bullish". In the reporting week, speculators opened 2,093 long contracts and closed 12,488 short contracts. Thus, the number of long and short contracts in the hands of major players has almost equalized. Now, we can say that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders is neutral, which means more attention should be paid to the graphical picture and signals. In recent weeks, the major players do not have any clear mood and then increase purchases, then increase sales. The total number of long and short contracts for all categories of traders is the same.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I do not recommend new purchases of the pound now, as the fall in quotes has just begun, and the pair has closed below two trend corridors. I recommended opening sales if there is closure under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart, with targets of 1.3663 and 1.3603. Now, these deals can be kept open.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency not to make speculative profits, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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