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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair traded quite interestingly on November 5. In total, almost 90 points were passed from the high to the low of the day and back. At the same time, not a single trading signal was generated during the day. In fact, this is a rare occurrence, since signals are formed even when the pair is in a flat or moves with low volatility. However, we witnessed such a unique event on Friday. By the way, for the pound/dollar pair, Friday started with the continuation of the collapse that began on Thursday. Moreover, in the morning there was no news or reports that could provoke a further rise in the dollar. Therefore, we tend to believe that the markets continued to buy the dollar in advance, relying on strong statistics from overseas. The markets were right about that. Not like a day earlier, when the Bank of England was expected to raise the key rate. Thus, the pair's fall during the European trading session can even be considered "relatively logical". Profit-taking on short positions began in the second half of the day, which led to an upward correction. But let's repeat: not a single trading signal was generated during the day. Thus, traders did not manage to work out quite good movements of the pair on Friday. Unfortunately.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, the pound/dollar pair continued its downward movement last week, which is supported by a descending trend line. However, we have already said that the line itself is very weak. For example, if the correction continues, the pair may grow by 300 points and the downward trend will still be relevant. Moreover, we have already said in previous articles that the pound's fall last week did not look quite logical, so in the new week traders can start to win back the reverse movement. We highlight the following important levels on November 8: 1,3306, 1,3416, 1,3519, 1,3570, 1,3601 – 1,3607. The Senkou Span B (1.3717) and Kijun-sen (1.3558) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 20 points. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator can move during the day, which should be taken into account when searching for trading signals. There won't be a single major event or publication in the UK and the US on Monday. However, the pound/dollar pair may continue to grow, playing back last week's decline that is not entirely logical. Moreover, this option is not denied by the current technical picture, and there are no new reasons for the pair to fall yet.
We recommend you to familiarize yourself:
Forecast and trading signals for EUR/USD for November 8. Detailed analysis of the movement of the pair and trade deals.
COT report
The mood of professional traders practically did not change during the last reporting week (October 26-November 1). However, it should be noted that the two most important days of last week – Wednesday and Thursday - when all the strongest movements occurred, were not included in the latest report. That is, in a week we will be able to see how much and in which direction the mood of professional traders has changed. In the meantime, we can only draw the same conclusions as a week ago. The green and red lines of the first indicator continue to constantly change the direction of movement, constantly intersecting. This suggests that big players themselves do not understand what to do with the pound. However, this can be clearly seen from the very schedule of the pair's movement, starting from July. These four months, the pound/dollar pair has been between the levels of 1.3400 and 1.4000, that is, in the horizontal channel. It was during this period of time that commercial and non-commercial traders changed their mood almost every week. Thus, taking into account the previous changes, we would assume that a new growth of the British currency will begin in the near future with the prospect of a 500-point rise. Moreover, the results of the Bank of England meeting were not dovish. The British currency has fallen undeservedly, which means that the markets may soon recoup this injustice. It should also be noted that during the reporting week, professional traders opened 5.8 buy contracts (longs) and 7.5 thousand sell contracts (shorts). Thus, the net position has not changed much.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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