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Analysis of previous deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair "died" again on Monday. On the one hand, it was very predictable. After all, not a single important macroeconomic event was scheduled for Monday. On the other hand, Jerome Powell's speech did take place, so the markets could at least pretend that they care. However, no, the pair continued to move in their usual mode, in which they have been for several months. Volatility again amounted to an "unrealistic" 44 points, and there has been no trend movement for several weeks. The pair just moves from one side channel to another, that's all. Thus, it turns out that last Thursday the pair showed more or less good movement, and all the other days - like a carbon copy. Unfortunately, such movements are still very difficult to deal with. There is still no trend line or channel on the 30-minute timeframe. Therefore, it is not recommended for novice traders to trade on it.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
On the 5-minute timeframe, the movement on Monday was very eloquent. There was a minimal upward trend, but the pair grew by 20 points in total for the day. That is, the movement was very weak, the volatility was very weak, the trend was very weak, and there were practically no trading signals. And it would be better if they didn't exist at all. The tick in the illustration above marks the start time of the speech by Jerome Powell, chairman of the Fed. As you can see, no special changes have occurred at this time. Well, the only signal of the day was formed when the price was fixed above the level of 1.1585. Formally, it could be worked out, since it was not formed too late. However, novice traders by that time could already understand that there would be no active movements, so this signal could well be skipped. As a result, the price remained just above the level of 1.1585, and tomorrow it may move in any direction, but everything is also sluggish.
How to trade on Tuesday:
There is still no trend or horizontal channel on the 30-minute timeframe at this time. Therefore, the current movement still defies description. We still do not recommend tracking signals from the MACD indicator, but we advise you to wait for the formation of a trendline or trend channel. On the 5-minute timeframe, the key levels for November 9 are 1.1535, 1.1585, 1.1617 - 1.1622. Take Profit, as before, is set at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15 points. At 5M TF, the target can be the nearest level, if it is not located too close or too far away. If it is located– then you should act on the situation or work on Take Profit. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak in the European Union on Tuesday, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to speak in America. It is not worth losing sight of these events, however, it is unlikely that both officials will tell the markets anything important. Therefore, most likely, these events will not affect the mood of the market in any way.
Basic rules of the trading system:
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the American one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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