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Bitcoin dropped by about $3,000 on Monday, November 22, recording a total decline of almost $11,500 in recent weeks. The wave picture of the cryptocurrency is very interesting now, but I will consider it a little below.
The instrument made an unsuccessful attempt to break through the $56,361 mark, which corresponds to 76.4% Fibonacci level. Therefore, the construction of a downward wave can be completed. And if this is indeed the case, then the instrument will resume increasing from the current positions with targets located near the $74,000 mark.
Some analysts are waiting for just such an option. However, there is a second option, in which the second attempt to break $56,361 will be successful. Recent studies have shown that about 80% of all Bitcoin coins are concentrated on the wallets of long-term investors. That is, those who are willing to hold Bitcoin for more than 155 days.
Based on this, it may seem that Bitcoin is doomed to grow further almost indefinitely. However, the difference between short-term and long-term investors is only one day. If you hold Bitcoin for 154 days, then you are a short-term investor. If you hold it for one day more, then you are already a long-term term investor.
Therefore, all these definitions are very conditional. According to Glassnode, long-term owners own 13.5 million coins. And these are only large investors. In total, long-term buyers account for 82% of all coins. But this should not be misleading because if Bitcoin continues to fall, the number of long-term investors may quickly and sharply decrease.
This was stated by the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. According to the plan, the new city will have a round shape, a complex in the form of the letter "B" will be created in its center, and all residents of this city will be exempt from all taxes except VAT. The new city is also set to use only renewable geothermal energy sources.
The authorities of El Salvador want to issue 10-year bonds worth $1 billion to finance this project. The partners of this project will be Bitfinex and Blockstream. The representative of the latter, Samson Mow, has already stated that if 1 billion can be collected, then $500 million will be invested in Bitcoin for 5 years, and the remaining 500 million will be spent on creating urban infrastructure and mining.
The current upward section of the trend still does not cause any doubts. The wave pattern was refined after the instrument made a successful attempt to break through the maximum of the assumed wave 3. Now the whole picture looks like an impulsive five-wave upward trend section, which began its construction on July 20.
However, the exit of quotes from the reached highs over the past two weeks may also mean the completion of the expected wave 5, which in this case will be shortened. At the moment, I'm leaning towards this option. Especially if Bitcoin successfully breaks through the $56,361 mark. If not, then wave 4 can still be recognized as three-wave, after which the construction of the proposed wave 5 with targets located around the 74th figure can begin.
If the attempt is successful, the decline will continue within the first wave of a new downward trend segment, which may take at least a month or two to build. And Bitcoin at this time will strive not to the $100,000 mark, but to the $45,000 mark. There is no talk of a complete collapse of BTC yet.
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