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According to the wave analysis, on the four-hour chart, the formation of wave e in C remains under question. However, market participants are doing a lot to resume the downward movement. If wave e stops its formation, I will have to admit that wave C consists of three waves and it is completed. However, I still believe that it could contain five waves. The wave that began its formation on November 30 could be neither a part of wave C nor a wave of the upward part of the trend. The fact is that the price failed to break the peak of wave d in C and the low of c in C. The trading instrument is almost trading sideways. Under the current conditions, traders should take the wait-and-see approach. Meanwhile, wave e (or a more complicated d) could be really long and horizontal, thus complicating the current wave structure.
Christmas week continues.
On Thursday, the news flow was rather weak to support the euro/dollar pair. However, the US published several reports that might have attracted traders' attention, but markets simply ignored the data. Nevertheless, we will take a look at these reports since some of them were really important. Thus, in November, the US durable goods orders advanced by 2.5%, whereas analysts had expected a rise of 1.9%. Core PCE price index increased by 0.5% on a monthly basis instead of inching up by 0.4%. Meanwhile, consumer spending increased by 0.6% and consumer income added 0.4%, thus meeting the forecast.
Data on the unemployment claims also was in line with expectations. In other words, the US reports were positive and could have boosted demand for the US dollar. However, it has been moving sideways for several weeks in a row. Thus, on Thursday, the greenback climbed by 25 pips, though within the range. The year is coming to an end and Omicron is the only topic that is still causing concerns. The new virus strain is rapidly spreading in the EU and the US. However, market participants prefer to ignore this fact.
Conclusion.
Judging by the analysis, I can say that the formation of wave C could be finished. However, the internal structure of this wave may add one more downward wave. Thus, I recommend selling the instrument with the targets near 1.1152 at every MACD downward signal until the price breaks the peak of wave d.
Bigger time frame
On bigger time frames, wave structure looks quite convincing. The quotes continue falling. Now, the downward part of the trend that began on May 25 is turning into a three-wave correctional structure of A-B-C. Thus, the price is likely to decline for several more weeks, until wave C is completed.
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