28.12.202113:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD analysis and forecast for December 28, 2021

The AUD/USD currency pair is struggling but continues to move in a northerly direction. Since the Australian dollar is traditionally considered a risky asset, and now there is more or less appetite for risks in the markets, this helps the Aussie quote to gradually strengthen. At the same time, the factor of the COVID-19 pandemic and the spread of its Omicron strain sometimes discourages investors from risky operations. Let me remind you that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) plans to normalize interest rates in the second half of next year - to start the process of raising them, but this is far from news. In the meantime, in the absence of significant macroeconomic statistics, the main factor is the technical component, which we are moving to right now.

Daily

As you can see on the daily chart of the currency pair in question, at yesterday's trading, the bears on the "Aussie" tried to turn the course in a southerly direction, but nothing came of it. As a result, yesterday's candle with a fairly long lower shadow and a white bullish body indicated the market's desire to move up. And indeed, at today's auction, at the moment of writing, the pair is showing growth, which is still quite modest. I believe that this is not surprising, since the thin pre-New Year market does not particularly encourage the active positioning of investors. In the current situation, the pair is once again testing for a breakdown of the sufficiently strong resistance of sellers at 0.7253, if this level is broken and trading on AUD/USD closes above this mark, a rise in the 0.7274-0.7288 area will follow. Please note that here is the 50 simple moving average, the 50th Fibo level from the decline of 0.7557-0.6995, as well as the black 89 exponential moving average.

I would venture to assume that only in the case of a true breakdown of the 89 EMA, the pair's rise can be continued. In the meantime, the allocated zone, if the pair reaches it, represents very strong resistance. If reversal patterns of candle analysis appear here, a good signal for opening short positions will appear at this or smaller time intervals. I recommend trying earlier sales if the pair fails to break through the current resistance of 0.7253 and similar signals appear below this level. In general, despite the tendency of AUD/USD to grow, buying under the resistance level is not exactly the right trading idea. Usually, they sell from resistance, but you need to wait for the appropriate signals to confirm. If we consider the sales below, then we are waiting for signals under the current resistance of 0.7253, and above, in the selected zone. After their appearance, we try to sell, but with small goals. By the way, the same applies to purchases. Modest goals are meant. Still, it is necessary to take into account the current New Year's Eve situation, the actual absence of a fundamental component, and a thin market.