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Bitcoin hardly moved in the early days of 2022, but it still resumed its decline yesterday. In our opinion, the world's first cryptocurrency continues to be within the corrective section of the trend and now, the formation of its third wave continues. This wave may be the last, but quotes for this should fall at least below the previous low - from December 4. Based on these considerations, we expect Bitcoin to decline to a low of $40,000. Nevertheless, there are alternative scenarios. For example, the expected wave b of the correction section may take a more complex form than it is now. However, this will only delay Bitcoin's further decline. If the attempt to break through the level of $ 41642 is successful, then this cryptocurrency has every chance to decrease by another $ 7-8 thousand.
It was already mentioned during yesterday's review that most of the forecasts at the end of last year did not come true. Ironically, most of them spoke just about the $ 100,000 mark either until the end of 2021 or at the beginning of 2022. Today, it became known that analysts of the large investment bank Goldman Sachs made a new forecast, which includes the level of $ 100,000. But this time, they gave a time frame within which the first cryptocurrency is able to reach that mark, that is, within 5 years. According to the bank's analysts, Bitcoin currently accounts for about 20% of the entire savings market, which consists only of gold and Bitcoin. Over the next five years, they expect the share of bitcoin to rise to 50%, which will allow the cryptocurrency to surge to the level of $ 100,000.
We believe that such a forecast has a much better chance of coming true. It is worth noting that 2022 can be a very difficult year for all risky assets, among which Bitcoin undoubtedly comes first. Central banks in many countries will raise interest rates and have already begun to stop monetary stimulus. In this case, risky assets are already under-invested in order to continue to rise. So far, this is not too much noticeable, but it will be when the Fed is going to completely do it in March this year. In addition, according to the assurances of Neel Kashkari, the rate will be raised at least twice this year. These factors can force investors to abandon new cryptocurrency investments.
A new downward section of the trend continues to form, no matter who says what. At the moment, only one downward wave can be seen, and there should be at least two of them and a correctional wave between them. Therefore, we expect the instrument to decline to the last low, around the level of $ 41,500. The downward trend may end around it, but such a shortened third wave is rare. The instrument can be expected below this mark. Moreover, the supposed wave b may take on a more extended form than it is now, i.e. it can turn out five-wave, which also cannot be excluded completely. After the formation of the assumed wave c is done, everything will depend on the news background. If they are negative, then the entire downward trend may try to acquire an impulsive form. This will hinder Bitcoin to update its highs for quite some time.
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