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19.01.202207:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: United States at its Covid peak

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Exchange Rates 19.01.2022 analysis

The main US equity indices dropped sharply in the past three days, in line with our expectations. We have repeatedly said that a deep correction is expected in 2022. We may now see the very start of it. This is not only our point of view. Many experts are making the same projections as well. They assume that all risk assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies, will suffer in the years to come. The downward spiral of bitcoin, the riskiest asset of all, started several months ago. The flagship cryptocurrency has already lost half of its value. Of course, such a plunge is highly unlikely in the equity market, but nonetheless. The tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve will have a negative impact on separate stocks, as well as the Dow Jones, NASDA, and S&P 500. Above all else, the coronavirus pandemic has not gone anywhere. It keeps tightening its grip on the whole world.

Last week, the United States reported a daily increase in new infection cases by 700K-800K, the highest level unseen since the outbreak of the pandemic. Omicron is less deadly compared to other strains of Covid-19. The mortality rate due to Omicron is lower if we take into account the percentage of deaths from the overall number of infections. Nevertheless, the US deaths rate remains high. Some 853K people have died due to Covid-19 implications since the pandemic erupted. About 2K people die every day, which is slightly lower than during the Delta-caused wave. According to Vivek Murthy, the Surgeon General of the United State, the next few weeks will be difficult for the country due to hospitals filled with patients and medical personnel shortages. Mr. Murthy also pointed out that vaccines work, but you still have a chance of getting infected even if you have 3 jabs done. Above all else, he lashed out at the US Supreme Court for its decision to block the Biden administration's Covid requirements that most workers in large companies must be vaccinated. The mandate could have affected some 84 million workers.

At the same time, Anthony Fauci, the country's leading expert on infectious disease, said that Omicron could help end the pandemic and hasten Covid's transition from pandemic to endemic. According to Dr. Fauci, an endemic phase differs from a pandemic phase because the virus continues to exist but it does not infect as many people as it does now. So, it will not lead to devastating consequences. Dr. Fauci also warned that the transition of the virus to the endemic phase will be possible if only a new strain "that eludes the immune response to the prior variant" does not emerge. "We were fortunate" that Omicron did not share some of the same characteristics as Delta, Dr. Fauci said. "But the sheer volume of people who are getting infected overrides that rather less level of pathogenicity."

Paolo Greco
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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