12.04.202217:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD analysis on April 12. Important statistics in the UK and the US did not interest the market.

For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave markup continues to look very convincing and does not require any additions. The assumed wave d-E is completed, and there should be five waves in total inside the wave E, respectively, as in the case of the euro/dollar instrument, the downward trend section can continue its construction for some time. Wave d-E can still take a longer, three-wave form. This is supported by the fact that wave b-E has taken a five-wave, extended form, as well as an unsuccessful (so far) attempt to break through the low wave c-E. However, considering that the instrument dropped to the low of wave c-E, I think that wave d still completed its construction. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes will continue, and a successful attempt to break through the 76.4% Fibonacci level indicates that the market is ready for new sales. In general, the wave pattern still looks very organic. I am not considering alternative options yet.

The dollar had chances to continue rising.

The exchange rate of the pound/dollar instrument rose by literally 20 basis points on April 12, although the amplitude, as the day before, was much stronger during the day. There was a lot of news today and almost everything related to the economy. And then later we have somehow become accustomed to the fact that there is almost no economic news, and all the attention of the market is focused on geopolitics, which harms the euro and the pound. However, early this morning in the UK there were reports on unemployment (a decrease from 3.9% to 3.8%), wages (an increase from 4.8% to 5.4%), as well as applications for unemployment benefits (-46.9K with expectations of -41.1K). Thus, all three British reports turned out to be quite positive, which could support the demand for the British. However, in the first half of the day, the pound declined more than it grew. In the afternoon, when the US inflation report was released, demand for the US currency was already declining, which does not quite correspond to the inflation value that everyone saw. The consumer price index rose to 8.5% year-on-year, as indicated by most forecasts. However, in the case of British statistics, I expected the growth of the British, in the case of American statistics, I expected the growth of the Americans, and in both cases, the expectations were not met.

And the pound/dollar instrument at the time of writing this article continued to remain approximately in the same range as the day before, as on Friday. The picture above also clearly shows that in the last few days there has been a horizontal movement exactly below the 76.4% Fibonacci level. At the same time, the descending wave e in E does not look complete yet - the low of wave c-E has not been updated. Thus, unfortunately, I have to note that economic reports now have very little impact on market sentiment. The market seems to react to important data, but at the same time, it does not lead to movements that would be logical. I believe that, in general, the news background for the British and the European remains negative, and the wave marking in both cases suggests a further decline. But we should not expect a resumption of this decline, based on economic statistics, now.

General conclusions.

The wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument still assumes the construction of wave E. I continue to advise selling the instrument with targets located near the 1.2676 mark, which corresponds to 100.0% Fibonacci, according to the MACD signals "down", since the wave e-E does not look complete yet.

At the higher scale, wave D looks complete, but the entire downward section of the trend does not. Therefore, in the coming weeks, I expect the decline of the instrument to continue with targets well below the low of wave C. Wave E should take a five-wave form, so I expect to see the British quotes around the 27th figure.