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EUR/USD continues to fall deeper into the downward channel on the weekly chart. Its lower limit is currently passing near the 1.0100 mark. Considering the pair's average daily volatility of 70–90 points, this distance can be covered in 2–3 days.
The dollar continues to dominate the market. Risk aversion and the Fed's monetary policy, which remains the tightest among the policies of the world's major central banks to date, are the main drivers of the dollar's growth.
Meanwhile, the risks of recession and, possibly, stagflation are growing in the eurozone: this is when, with high inflation, the economy is not growing or even shrinking, and unemployment is also, as a rule, growing. The euro remains under pressure from these risks as the ECB continues to take a wait-and-see position, despite the increased signals from the bank's management regarding the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future.
As of this writing, EUR/USD is trading near 1.0228, updating yesterday's almost 20-year low of 1.0235. The negative momentum is growing, and the pair continues to decline towards parity of the euro with the dollar.
Below the key resistance levels 1.0880 (144 EMA on the daily chart) and 1.1015 (200 EMA on the daily chart), EUR/USD is in the zone of a long-term bearish market, and a possible corrective growth will most likely be limited by the resistance level of 1.0580 (50 EMA on the daily chart). In the main scenario, we expect further decline.
Support levels: 1.0200, 1.0100, 1.0000
Resistance levels: 1.0355, 1.0428, 1.0485, 1.0537, 1.0580, 1.0780, 1.0800, 1.0880, 1.1000, 1.1015
Trading Tips
Sell by market. Stop Loss 1.0280. Take Profit 1.0200, 1.0100, 1.0000
Buy Stop 1.0280. Stop-Loss 1.0190. Take-Profit 1.0355, 1.0428, 1.0485, 1.0537, 1.0580
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