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The EUR/USD currency pair was trading almost in full flat on Wednesday, which is clearly visible on the 30-minute timeframe. The price tried to overcome the level of 1.0156 twice, but both times nothing came of it. The pair's behavior looks rather strange, since today at least some macroeconomic statistics were published in the European Union and the United States, unlike on Monday and Tuesday, when there were no releases at all, but the pair moved with much more volatility and trend. Despite the fact that the reports were not the most important and significant today (which we drew the attention of traders to yesterday), one could still count on more or less stable movement during the day. But no, there was a flat all day long. Naturally, it was very difficult and inconvenient to trade in flat conditions. The lack of a clear trend is also complicating the trading process now. Yes, the pair fell from the level of 1.0359 to the level of 1.0156, which could be considered a downward trend, but at the moment there is no trend line, and there are still serious difficulties with overcoming the level of 1.0156. We still believe that the euro will continue to fall, but there are no technical benchmarks at the moment. As for macroeconomics, the European Union published a report on GDP for the second quarter in the second assessment. Its value was 0.6%, and in general it was in line with the forecasts, but traders were not interested in it at all.
The sideways movement is also clearly visible on the 5-minute timeframe. Surprisingly, even two signals were formed in such trading conditions, which cannot be called unequivocally false. Of course, newcomers hardly managed to make money on them, since the price never managed to reach the target level. Nevertheless, the day could have ended without a loss, which is also very good in a flat. The first signal for a rebound from the level of 1.0156 was completely identical to the second signal for a rebound. Beginners could open long positions both times, after which the price went up more than 15 points. Therefore, it was possible to set Stop Loss to breakeven for both trades, according to which they were closed.
Falling quotes can continue to move down on the 30-minute timeframe at any moment. In general, most factors remain in favor of the US dollar, and a downward trend line may be formed in the near future. But for this it is necessary that the pair also form a clear upward correction, which is not yet available. On the 5-minute TF on Thursday, it is recommended to trade at the levels of 1.0072, 1.0123, 1.0156, 1.0221, 1.0269-1.0277. When passing 15 points in the right direction, you should set Stop Loss to breakeven. The European Union will publish an important inflation report for July on Thursday. Therefore, traders have the right to count on the reaction of the market, on the completion of the flat, on the trend and volatile movement. There will be no important data and events in America. The report on applications for unemployment benefits is unlikely to be of interest to the market.
1) The signal strength is calculated by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or overcome the level). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2) If two or more deals were opened near a certain level based on false signals (which did not trigger Take Profit or the nearest target level), then all subsequent signals from this level should be ignored.
3) In a flat, any pair can form a lot of false signals or not form them at all. But in any case, at the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4) Trade deals are opened in the time period between the beginning of the European session and until the middle of the US one, when all deals must be closed manually.
5) On the 30-minute TF, using signals from the MACD indicator, you can trade only if there is good volatility and a trend, which is confirmed by a trend line or a trend channel.
6) If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 15 points), then they should be considered as an area of support or resistance.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal against the previous movement.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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