04.10.202218:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: OPEC exert pressure on market and oil prices rise

Oil prices rise ahead of OPEC+ meeting. The meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee as well as the OPEC+ Ministerial meeting will be held in person at the OPEC Secretariat on October 5 in Vienna. The face-to-face meeting is scheduled for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Meetings have been held via video conference since March 2020.

On Thursday, December futures for Brent crude oil at London's ICE Futures Exchange were trading at $90.68 a barrel, which was 2.05% above the previous closing price.

The price of WTI crude oil futures for November in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 2.01% to $85.31 per barrel.

Analysts believe a decision to lower oil production quotas will be made at the OPEC meeting. This is a key decision as the prices of this raw material have been falling dramatically. They even almost dropped to $80. Back in August, the Saudi minister tried to stop the decline by verbal interventions and mentioned the separation of futures markets from real life and the departure of speculators from them. However, these speeches had little effect.

Currently, analysts expect the alliance to make a difficult decision regarding a significant reduction of oil production by over 1 million barrels per day.

Moreover, such decline in oil output will occur only formally. In reality, the volume of extracted raw materials will be even less.

OPEC is not concerned about the energy crisis. It is obvious that oil importers will suffer losses after oil production decreases and oil prices stabilize. Inflation is the reason for central banks to make tough decisions. Therefore, cheaper oil reduces the effect of skyrocketing costs of living. However, OPEC is not obliged to fight it. Its key goal is to slow the speed of market fluctuations and to stabilize its own revenues.

It is clear that many officials were dissatisfied with a significant reduction in oil production, so it is not surprising that OPEC+ ministers will hold a face-to-face meeting in Vienna.

A number of OPEC+ countries have fallen behind their oil output targets since September 2021 due to severe underinvestment, military action in oil-producing countries and sanctions. The overall OPEC+ quota rose, allowing countries to increase oil output. In September 2022, OPEC+ ministers decided to reduce the quota for October by 100,000 barrels a day.

Oil prices fell by 25% in the past quarter, favored by investor expectations of a weakening global economy. A rapid tightening of monetary policy by the global central banks, in particular the US Federal Reserve, will obviously affect the world market. Recently, analysts make forecasts about an upcoming worldwide recession, which will certainly have a negative impact on global oil demand.