06.10.202213:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US Premarket on October 6: Stock market rally is over

US stock index futures fell again after yesterday's upward surge and the weekly high update. The pressure on equity markets returned after OPEC+ announced a reduction in oil supplies yesterday, which provoked a rise in prices and increased inflation concerns.

Now, traders are preparing for data on the labor market, which will allow them to understand the current state of the economy and assess the risk of recession. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stock indices fell 0.6% each, while the industrial Dow Jones sank only 0.2%. The European Stoxx 600 has lost all morning growth and is now trading in the neutral zone.

The Treasury bond market remains fairly stable. The two-year paper shows a yield of 4.15%.

As noted above, crude oil futures in the United States rose by about 11% over the week after the oil cartel announced a reduction in daily production by 2 million barrels. Higher energy prices may trigger inflation, and some investors already assume that there will be a decline in household demand in the near future — this will hit the economy and prompt the Federal Reserve to slow down monetary policy tightening. Such expectations have contributed to the growth of stocks this week. However, the path to a less aggressive Fed policy may be more painful than previously assumed. It is obvious that despite the looming problems with household spending, the Fed will definitely not resort to easing financial conditions soon; they do not want stock markets to take off again and resume their bullish rally.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures are trading at about $88 per barrel, and Brent crude is trading at about $93.30. The plan to reduce production prompted a warning from the White House about the negative consequences for the global economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised the target price for Brent crude oil for the fourth quarter to $ 110 per barrel, which will only increase inflation.

In the current conditions, investors will continue to wait, fearing to make large-scale bets on the further growth of stocks. Today's report on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States and tomorrow's official data on employment in the non-agricultural sector can cause a lot of noise. According to the forecast by economists, 260,000 jobs appeared in the US economy last month; a higher-than-expected number may scare off investors, as this will allow the Fed to continue to act as aggressively as possible.

This week, Fed officials have tried their best to emphasize that market expectations of a rate cut next year are inappropriate. Yesterday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said in an interview that the bank seeks to adhere to a strict policy to ensure inflation at 2%.

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, after yesterday's growth, demand decreased slightly, as did the index itself. Trading below $3,773 creates some difficulties for a further bullish rally. The bulls will expect a second spurt to $3,773 after strong data on the US economy, leaving hope for a further upward correction. The breakdown of $3,773 will support a new upward momentum, already aimed at the resistance of $3,801. The furthest target will be in the area of $3,835. In the event of a downward movement, the bulls will declare themselves in the area of $7,735. But a breakdown of this range will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,706 and $3,677 and open up the possibility of updating support at $3,648. Below this range, you can bet on a larger sell-off of the index to a minimum of $3,608, where the pressure may ease a little.