19.10.202207:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Recession in US unavoidable

The euro and the pound sterling are trying to resist the pressure exerted by the stronger US dollar. In the last several days, both currencies managed to score some gains, which means they may well start to form the ascending section of the trend. At the same time, traders should closely monitor headlines in the media and attempt to foresee how the market might react to certain events. Alas, the events taking place in the world could potentially have any outcome.

When the pandemic broke and countries started to introduce lockdowns, the whole world stopped. Almost nothing worked, except, perhaps, large enterprises and industries. Planes stopped flying, trains stopped running, people stopped traveling, and restaurants and cinemas closed. It still remains to be seen how this pandemic ends because the virus hasn't gone anywhere. Moreover, the pandemic showed people that viruses can spread fast even today when the medicine is so advanced.

In 2022, a conflict in Ukraine started. Actually, it began in 2014. All those years, there were still hopes for its peaceful resolution. However, the year 2022 showed the whole world that it stands on the verge of a new world war. Today, countries openly threaten each other with nuclear weapons.

In light of all those events, a recession in the United States seems unavoidable. According to Bloomberg analysts, the chance of a recession in the United States within 12 months has reached 100%. Based on the latest outlooks from large analytical agencies and banks, the American economy is expected to rise by 2% in 2022 and 0.6% in 2023. Bloomberg believes US President Biden misleads Americans, reassuring them that a recession could be avoided, and the economy is stable. Macroeconomic indicators keep deteriorating, and the economy risks collapsing.

In my view, the economy won't collapse. Meanwhile, a recession is unavoidable in many countries, given the events of the last 2-3 years. A recession is also inevitable in the European Union or in the United Kingdom where Governor Andrew Bailey speaks openly about it.

On the chart, the formation of the descending section of the trend continues but may end at any time. It is possible that a new impulse wave is now building up. Therefore, consider selling the instrument at around 0.9397, in line with the 423.6% Fibonacci level, when the MACD reverses to the downside. It is important to trade cautiously right now, as it is unclear how long the instrument will stay in the downtrend and whether the current wave structure transforms into the ascending one.