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The British pound reacted with growth to the news that the newly minted Prime Minister, Liz Truss, is leaving the post of Prime Minister of Great Britain, having worked there for only 45 days. After a short and chaotic tenure, almost ruining the entire UK financial market by announcing a massive package of tax breaks, Truss announced that her political career was over.
The 47-year-old Truss announced that she was resigning, claiming the title of prime minister with the shortest term in British history. The ruling Conservative Party intends to choose her successor by October 28. Until then, she will remain the acting prime minister. According to experts, the candidates for her replacement are likely to be former Chancellor of the Treasury Rishi Sunak, who took second place after Truss in the leadership race this summer, Penny Mordaunt, Grant Shapps, and Kemi Badenoch. Former Interior Minister Suella Braverman, who was fired on Wednesday, may also participate in the elections.
The new finance minister, Jeremy Hunt, promoted after Truss fired Kwasi Kwarteng to restore calm in the markets, said he would not include himself in the list of candidates for the position.
Conservative MP Graham Brady has already announced that, despite the short timeframe, the party intends to nominate two candidates for selection by ordinary Tory members. According to him, more detailed information will be provided later.
As for Truss' political career, having come to power in early September, promising a total boost to economic growth, her proposed program was unpleasant for financial markets. The bond market and the British pound collapsed amid concerns about what Truss would pay for her economic reforms.
Her departure has caused serious damage to the ruling Conservative Party, which, after 12.5 years of rule, is now less than 30 points behind Labor. Her successor will become the party's fifth prime minister in less than seven years since the 2016 Brexit referendum ushered in a period of unprecedented chaos in British politics. The new Prime minister will face the daunting task of restoring the reputation of the Tory party and the economy by the time of the elections due in January 2025.
The central mistake of Truss was a large-scale package of tax benefits for 45 billion pounds ($50 billion) proposed by her at a time when the Bank of England was struggling with the strongest inflation in four decades. Truss and former Finance Minister Kwarteng tried to compensate for the damage by canceling an ill-considered step with tax benefits. Then, on October 14, Truss fired Kwarteng and completely abandoned the plan to freeze corporate tax next year. Now, her time has come.
The most optimal scenario for the market would be the victory of Rishi Sunak, who knows how best to proceed in the current situation, especially when the economy is rapidly slipping into recession.
As for the technical picture of GBPUSD, the growth and reaction to the retirement of the Truss led to the overlap of yesterday's losses. Now buyers are focused on protecting the 1.1240 support and the 1.1350 resistance breakdown, which limits the upward potential of the pair. Only a breakthrough of 1.1350 will open prospects for recovery to the 1.1400 area, after which it will be possible to talk about a sharper jerk of the pound up to the 1.1480 area – the maximum of this month. It is possible to talk about the return of pressure on the trading instrument after the bears take control of 1.1240. This will blow the bulls' positions and completely negate the prospects of the bull market observed since September 28. A breakout of 1.1240 will push GBPUSD back to 1.1160 and 1.1090.
As for the technical picture of EURUSD, the bears actively piled on the euro, but the good news from the UK pulled all risky assets. To resume growth, it is necessary to return above 0.9840, which will take the trading instrument to the 0.9870 area. However, the upward prospects will depend entirely on new US data. A break of 0.9770 will put pressure on the trading instrument and push the euro to a minimum of 0.9725, which will only worsen the situation of buyers of risky assets in the market. Having missed 0.9725, it will be possible to wait for the update of the lows in the area of 0.9680 and 0.9640.
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