25.01.202310:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: SocGen economists are anticipating a decline in the euro.

The demand for the euro does not appear to be declining and is still very high. I've mentioned numerous times in my most recent evaluations that wave e has dragged on too long and that the full upward portion of the trend needs to be finished as soon as feasible. In addition, unlike the euro, the "neighbor" of the European pound sterling has begun to form a corrective set of waves. As a result, the EU currency is the center of attention right now.

Speaking engagements by Christine Lagarde, of which there have been enough over the past week and a half, had little to no impact on the market's sentiment. The movement in recent weeks has been horizontal, as seen in the euro chart. This indicates that the market has stabilized and is awaiting a resolution. I believe that most market players are aware that the euro has expanded sufficiently to generate numerous correction waves. However, it appears that they are terrified of something. What could they possibly fear?

Before the ECB and Fed meetings, there is much to be concerned about. The Fed is currently the biggest source of danger since the US regulator might halt the interest rate increase for the second time in a row. The market has, in my opinion, already taken these worries into account, as evidenced by the recent stagnation or decline in demand for the US dollar. Since practically all of the members of the governing council agreed that the rate should be increased by 50 basis points twice before it is determined, no one is expecting any surprises from the ECB.

SocGen economists, on the other hand, hold a different viewpoint. They feel that the ECB faces larger risks from erroneous estimates than the Fed does, in particular. The next two ECB meetings are expected to see an increase in rates of 93 basis points, but only by 46 points, according to the market. This suggests that unfair expectations may be more likely to cruelly mock the euro than the dollar. The EUR/USD pair has come a long way, and SocGen thinks it will be challenging for it to continue on its current course. "We are not looking for methods to justify profit-taking on the euro," SocGen says.

At this point, everyone is anticipating a correction from the British. I - because, based on the current wave layout, wave c should be constructed. However, according to Scotiabank analysts, the UK's fiscal policy continues to be a "weak point" in the outlook for the British pound. They pay attention to the "double top" pattern on the daily chart, anticipating a decline of 100–200 basis points over the next few days. Let me remind you that Rishi Sunak's new administration has already announced an increase in some taxes for the nation and that inflation is still quite high. The Bank of England can keep raising the rate by 50 basis points to support the pound, but there are limits to what it can do.

I conclude that the upward trend section's building is about finished based on the analysis. As a result, given that the MACD is indicating a "down" trend, it is now viable to contemplate sales with targets close to the predicted 0.9994 level, or 323.6% per Fibonacci. The potential for complicating and extending the upward portion of the trend remains quite strong, as does the likelihood of this happening. The market will be ready to finish the wave e when a bid to break through the 1.0950 level fails.

The building of a downward trend section is still assumed by the wave pattern of the pound/dollar instrument. According to the "down" reversals of the MACD indicator, it is possible to take into account sales with objectives around the level of 1.1508, which corresponds to 50.0% by Fibonacci. The upward portion of the trend is probably over; however, it might yet take a longer form than it does right now. However, you must exercise caution while making sales because the pound has a significant tendency to rise.