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My expectation that the British pound would reverse on Thursday did not materialize. On the contrary, the pound is up 50 pips. But the upper shadow is higher by 75 pips, which is a good sign of the reversal. The Fibonacci time zone tool had to be abandoned. Ideally, nothing has changed. I expect the pound to weaken along with other currencies because of the global strengthening of the dollar.
The pound may even go ahead of the market today, as weaker economic data is expected for the UK. Q4 GDP is forecast to show zero growth, December GDP may show a decline of 0.3%, annual GDP is expected to decline to 0.4% from the previous 1.9%, December industrial production may show a decline of 0.2%, trade balance is expected to deteriorate to -16.4 billion from the previous -15.6 billion.
On the daily chart, the upper shadow pierced the resistance of 1.2155, the Marlin oscillator turned down in the downtrend zone. The nearest bearish target is 1.1933.
On the four-hour chart, the growth was stopped by the MACD indicator line. Now the price has settled below 1.2155 and under the red balance line. Marlin turned down.
So, we are waiting for today's UK reports and the pound to fall.
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