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01.06.202315:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US premarket on June 1: US stock market hardly reacts to job market reports

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US futures are trading flat, showing no significant movement as the latest employment data from ADP suggests the Federal Reserve has room for further tightening. However, the committee members signal a pause is needed to better evaluate the impact of high borrowing costs on the economy and inflation.

Exchange Rates 01.06.2023 analysis

Last month, employment growth in US companies surpassed all forecasts, indicating a steady labor market that continues to support the economy. Another report from the Labor Department stated that initial jobless claims last week were largely in line with economists' estimates.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures contracts remained unchanged. Software maker C3.ai Inc's shares were the underperformers, dropping by 22% after disappointing sales forecasts. Nvidia, whose rapid growth fueled the AI rally, remained steady after yesterday's sell-off of more than 5%.

Meanwhile, progress in the debt ceiling agreement between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden can be considered a step forward. The bill is now headed to the Senate and, once approved, it will be on Biden's desk. Signs of optimism were also boosted by Fed representatives' comments supporting the possibility of keeping rates unchanged at the next meeting. Fed Manager Philip Jefferson announced yesterday that the central bank is likely to leave interest rates at their current level in June to assess economic prospects. His remarks were backed by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.

However, the lack of activity around yearly highs, combined with a slowdown in American companies' profits for two consecutive quarters, suggests the possibility of a market downturn ahead, typically starting with a minor correction.

European stock indexes also remained steady after news that inflation in the region is decreasing. As the report showed, inflation in the eurozone in May slowed down more than analysts had anticipated - particularly core inflation, which the ECB focuses on. Against this backdrop, the euro rose against the dollar, as this is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from raising rates at the next meeting in June this year.

Exchange Rates 01.06.2023 analysis

Most Asian stock indices saw growth today, though the rise in Chinese shares slowed as investors sifted through mixed data on the country's manufacturing activity.

As for the S&P 500 index, demand for the index has dipped slightly, but bulls still have a chance to build an upward trend. Bulls should settle the price above $4,200, from which a leap to $4229 may happen. Bulls also need to control $4,290, which may reinforce the bull market. If the trading instrument declines due to weak US economic data and hawkish comments from Fed representatives, bulls should protect $4,175 and $4,143. Breaking through this level, the index may return to $4,114 and plummet to $4,091.

Jakub Novak
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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