05.06.202314:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: BTC on bear run and NFP have nothing to do with that

Bitcoin failed to continue its recent bull run. The flagship cryptocurrency retraced back to the key line on the 24-hour chart, rebounded, and remained bearish. The target is still seen at the level of $25,211 per coin. With each new day, the ascending line is getting closer to this mark. Together, they could provide strong support for the coin. Accordingly, on the daily chart, the uptrend is intact. We may still see a bullish continuation now or in a few months.

Fundamentally, the situation for Bitcoin has changed for the better in recent months. The US labor market report that came mixed in the United States on Friday could have affected the premier cryptocurrency. However, those results turned out to be unimportant for the crypto market. Why? Because the correlation between the Federal Reserve's interest rates and macro statistics is weakening. Earlier, a strong labor market report would indicate the continuation of tightening. Now it means nothing. Currently, interest rates in the United States are at 5.25% and may be raised to 5.5% in June. This is a bearish factor for Bitcoin, but the market has already priced in all rate increases. It is now pricing in a dovish scenario with rate cuts and a future halving in 2024.

Therefore, be it a strong NFP report or a weak one, it no longer matters. We do not expect Bitcoin to rise steeply in the coming months. The Federal Reserve has already hinted at cuts in interest rates as early as the fall of 2023. A Bitcoin halving is scheduled for next year. When interest rates peak, they will likely remain high for six months at least. Although inflation is falling fast, the pace of decline will slow down. All in all, there will hardly be new driving factors for Bitcoin any time soon. The US debt ceiling issue has been solved. The US banking crisis no longer bothers investors. They calmed down and stopped selling off the dollar or withdrawing money from banks. The greenback is bullish again and exerts pressure on the value of the flagship cryptocurrency.

In the 24-hour chart, BTC has repeatedly attempted to break through $29,750. However, all attempts failed and a bearish correction continued. We expect the price to fall to $25,211 per coin. Further developments will depend on whether the price breaks through the barrier or not. If a corresponding signal comes, it will become possible to buy the instrument. For instance, if the price bounces off $25,211 or the trend line. A channel on the 4-hour chart will be of significant importance as well.