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Analysis of trades and tips for trading EUR
A test of 1.0684 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator moved down considerably from the zero level. It limited the downward movement of the pair. For this reason, I did not open short positions.
Weak data on Germany's factory orders and a drop in the Construction PMI Index increased pressure on the euro, which led to a sell-off of the euro on Tuesday. Germany's Manufacturing PMI Index is expected to be downbeat as well. Only speeches of ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta and Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank Joachim Wuermeling. If they make hawkish comments, it could help the euro rise higher in the morning. However, I would recommend you to open long positions on the decline according to scenario No. 2. Trading volumes and volatility are likely to be low.
Buy signal
Scenario No.1: today, we could buy the euro if the price reaches 1.0697 plotted by the green line on the chart with the target at 1.0725 (thicker green line on the chart). I would recommend leaving the market at 1.0725 and then selling the euro in the opposite direction, bearing in mind a 30-35-pip downward move from the market entry point. The pair is likely to rise only amid positive economic reports. Important! Before opening long positions, make sure that MACD is above the zero mark and it has just started to climb from it.
Scenario No.2: it is also possible to buy the euro today after two consecutive tests of 1.0676. At this moment, the MACD indicator should be in the oversold area. It could limit the downward potential of the pair. It may also trigger an upward reversal. The pair is expected to rise to 1.0697 and 1.0725.
Sell signal
Scenario No. 1: you could sell the euro today if the price drops below 1.0676 (red line on the chart). The target for sellers will be the 1.0652 level where I recommend closing sell orders and immediately opening buy orders, expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level. The pressure on the euro will intensify in case of negative economic reports from Germany. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and has just started to fall from it.
Scenario No. 2: it is also possible to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive price tests of 1.0652. The MACD indicator should be in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. You can expect a decrease to the levels of 1.0676 and 1.0652
What we see on the trading chart:
A thin green line is a key level at which you can place long positions on EUR/USD.
A thick green line is the target price since the price is unlikely to move above it.
A thin red line is a level at which you can place short positions on EUR/USD.
A thick red line is the target price since the price is unlikely to move below it.
A MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. Before the release of important reports, it is better to stay out of the market to avoid sharp fluctuations in the price. If you decide to trade during the news release, place Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without Stop Loss orders, you can lose the entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.
Notably, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan. Relying on spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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