12.07.202311:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. July 12th. US inflation: the calm before the storm

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday secured above the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.2917). Thus, the growth process can continue toward the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.3007). A level of 1.3000 can be considered a psychological mark, and such levels usually attract price. In other words, traders may subconsciously strive for such marks. The pair's consolidation below the level of 1.2917 will work in favor of the US dollar, and some fall toward the level of 1.2847.

The waves are now painting us the same picture as with the euro. Each peak of the next wave is higher than the previous one, and each low - is higher than the previous one. Thus, there are no prerequisites for a change in traders' sentiment to "bearish." However, the most important report of this week will be released today, so the market reaction can be strong and unexpected. The pound rose in the first two days of the week, although the grounds for purchases were quite dubious. For example, yesterday's unemployment reports in the UK showed a deterioration, and the pound could show a decline.

But traders have already focused on US inflation, which could drop to 3.1% in June. This value has already been factored in, but what if the report shows a different result? In this case, we are waiting for a move that will depend on the side of the deviation from the forecast. If the consumer price index turns out to be above 3.1%, then a decline in the pair can be expected. If below - new growth.

The level of 1.3000 can be worked out a bit later, not today. Today the probability of a decline is higher. However, this does not mean traders' sentiment will change to "bearish."

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the level of 1.2745 and consolidated above the level of 1.2860. Thus, the growth of quotes can continue towards the next level of 1.3044. A "bearish" divergence is brewing at the CCI indicator, which may indicate the beginning of forming a "bearish" wave on the hourly chart. There are no sell signals now, and the pound ignores the news background, which should have led to its decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the previous reporting week, there was a shift in the "Non-commercial" traders' sentiment, which turned somewhat less "bullish." The count of long contracts held by speculators fell by 7,921 units, while the short contracts saw a decrease of 6,192. Despite this, the predominant sentiment among the major players remains distinctly "bullish," with a marked difference between long and short contracts: 96 thousand to 46 thousand. The pound has a favorable outlook for further growth, particularly as the current news environment lends it more support than the dollar. Nevertheless, anticipating a strong surge in the value of the pound sterling is increasingly challenging. The market is overlooking several factors that favor the dollar, and expectations of continual interest rate increases from the Bank of England primarily drive the pound's growth.

Here's the upcoming news schedule for the US and UK:

US - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (12:30 UTC).

US - "Beige Book" (18:00 UTC).

For Wednesday, the economic event calendar includes one report and one event. The "Beige Book," an aggregation of economic reports from various US regions, doesn't generally significantly influence the market. However, the inflation report may substantially sway traders' sentiments.

As for the GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:

Minimal selling of the pound during the "bullish" trend is possible. For instance, a rebound from the 1.3007 mark on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2917 or a closure below the 1.2917 level aiming for 1.2847 could be considered. New purchases could be advisable upon a rebound from the 1.2917 level on the hourly chart, aiming for 1.3007. However, movements in the latter half of the day may be considerable and vary in direction.