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Bitcoin and Ethereum have been resilient against the recent pressures. Whenever the market tries to make an upward move, traders face significant selling activity, which keeps both assets trading within sideways channels. I have consistently pointed out that the longer Bitcoin stays below $100,000, the higher the likelihood that bearish trends will take over. This could lead to a potential drop in price back to the $90,000 range, a level where speculative traders might feel considerable pain.
Yesterday, Arthur Hayes emphasized that if BTC declines, the nearest range where it might stabilize will be around $70,000 to $75,000. This drop could occur if traders realize that Trump's policies are not significantly different from those of his predecessors. The only factor that could prevent further declines in the cryptocurrency market is the Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus; however, there are currently no plans to restart large-scale money printing. If investors come to understand that the new administration is unlikely to implement revolutionary changes, we may see aggressive selling begin, leading to a sharp decline in prices. Moreover, concerns about stock market bubbles are becoming more prevalent. If the Fed is unwilling to introduce stimulus measures akin to those from 2020-2021, it could negatively affect investor interest in cryptocurrencies as well.
This situation would drive traders to adopt a more cautious approach, resulting in increased volatility for Bitcoin. To prevent Bitcoin from falling below $70,000, investors will need clear information and confidence regarding future USD liquidity flows and their potential impact on the crypto market.
Regarding intraday crypto trading, I will continue to rely on buying Bitcoin and Ethereum during major pullbacks, expecting the medium-term bull market to persist.
For short-term trading, my strategy and conditions are detailed below.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today if the price reaches $98,400, targeting $100,000. Around $100,000, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, I must ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin is also possible from the lower boundary of $97,700, provided there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction. The targets are $98,400 and $100,000.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today if the price reaches $97,700, targeting $96,200. Around $96,200, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, I must confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin is also possible from the upper boundary of $98,400, provided there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction. Targets are $97,700 and $96,200.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today if the price reaches $2,860, targeting $2,950. Around $2,950, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, I must ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.
Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum is also possible from the lower boundary of $2,818, provided there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction. Targets are $2,860 and $2,950.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today if the price reaches $2,818, targeting $2,732. Around $2,732, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, I must confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.
Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum is also possible from the upper boundary of $2,860, provided there is no market reaction to a breakout in the opposite direction, with targets at $2,818 and $2,732.
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