05.10.201111:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for October 5, 2011

Long-term review

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AUD/USD is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored royal blue in the chart) from 1.0401. Within this wave there are also three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 0.9985. On still smaller scale we have subwave 4 (colored red in the chart) that is developing from 0.9387.

If the price keeps moving up the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 0.9985-0.9387, and 0.9878-0.9387.

Resistances:

- 0.9615 = .382 retracement
- 0.9632 = .50 ret
- 0.9686-90 = confluence area of .50 and .618 retracements
- 0.9757 = .618 ret

If the price reverses to the downside to continue the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0768-1.0181-1.0401, 1.0401-0.9621-0.9985, 0.9985-0.9701-0.9878, 0.9878-0.9387-0.9596.

Supports:

- 0.9293 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9205 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9134 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 0.9105 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the medium term trend is down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or gets into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices).

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