16.05.202505:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD Forecast for May 16, 2025

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Over the past four days, the price has failed to break through the resistance level at 1.4010, not that it made much of an attempt. Yesterday, the price reversed from where the balance line intersects with the 1.4010 level.

A turn in the Marlin oscillator on the daily timeframe supports this reversal. It appears that the price is now aiming to break the 1.3898 support. A successful breach would allow the pair to continue declining toward 1.3746 (the May 6 low) and further down to test the lower boundary of the price channel at 1.3705.

To confirm the intention to test 1.3898, the price must break below the MACD line on the H4 chart near 1.3932.

There is potential for this move—it is signaled by the Marlin oscillator completing its consolidation around the zero line (gray rectangle) and preparing for a downward breakout.

The alternative scenario would be a consolidation above 1.4010, which would set up an attack on the MACD line on the daily chart. However, the odds of this outcome appear low.

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