21.05.202511:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Following the release of UK consumer inflation data, which came in above expectations, the GBP/JPY pair slightly pared back its intraday losses. However, it failed to attract significant buying interest, partly due to the strengthening of the Japanese yen.

According to data published by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.6% to 3.5% in April—its highest level in a year. The annual core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, also increased from 3.4% to 3.8%, significantly exceeding both expectations and the Bank of England's 2.0% target. This prompted investors to reassess their forecasts regarding a potential rate cut in 2025, thereby supporting the British pound.

Nevertheless, traders remain cautious amid the possibility that the Bank of England may still cut rates at least once before the end of the year. This contrasts with growing expectations of rate hikes from the Bank of Japan, which also lends support to the yen. Rising demand for safe-haven assets—driven by trade tensions between the U.S. and China and broader geopolitical risks—is also contributing to the strength of the Japanese currency. These factors, in turn, are limiting the intraday recovery of the GBP/JPY pair.

As a result, despite the improved inflation data, GBP/JPY has failed to mount a solid rebound. The mixed fundamental backdrop suggests traders should proceed with caution. Before gaining confidence in a deeper pullback from the more than four-month high reached last week, a drop below the psychological level of 193.00 is needed, followed by a test of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break below the 200-day SMA would expose the pair to a deeper decline.

For now, however, oscillators on the daily chart remain in positive territory, giving the pair enough strength to hold above these key levels.