23.05.202500:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The "Big, Beautiful Bill" vs. Import Tariffs

At present, Donald Trump is focused on promoting what he calls the "Big, Beautiful Law." In the trade war, Trump has done everything he could—he imposed tariffs, then lowered them, and gave opponents time to negotiate trade deals. Now, the negotiations are being handled by other members of Trump's team, while the U.S. President has turned his attention to pushing a tax reduction bill through Congress and the Senate.

As virtually every economist has pointed out multiple times, Trump's import tariffs are essentially just another form of tax. If the prices of imported goods rise, retailers will inevitably raise their end prices as well. Consequently, Americans will bear the cost of Trump's tariffs, making them effectively the same as any other tax, just under a different name.

This view is shared by Mike Pence, former Vice President under Trump's first term. He stated that the tariffs imposed by Trump are nothing more than taxes on American consumers, calling them the largest tax increase in U.S. peacetime history. Pence also noted that the so-called tax reduction law promoted by Trump will not benefit American consumers since they will pay more for all imported goods. In effect, Trump gives with one hand and takes away with the other — and, naturally, he takes away more. Pence also revealed that the tax bill contains many provisions directly impacting consumers. In particular, Trump intends to cut funding for a range of social programs aimed at low-income groups.

From this perspective, it appears that Trump is lowering the standard of living for Americans while trying to present it as a "path to a great future." In reality, consumer expenses will rise, while various subsidies, financial aid, and government support will be reduced. However, at this point, there's nothing that can be done. Trump is President and has nearly four more years to do as he pleases. As the first four months of his term have shown, no one has been able to stop him — either domestically or internationally.

EUR/USD Wave Outlook:

Based on the conducted analysis, EUR/USD continues to develop a bullish wave segment. In the near term, wave structure will entirely depend on the background of news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy — a crucial factor to keep in mind. Wave 3 of the bullish trend has begun, with potential targets extending as high as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider long positions with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci level. It is important to remember that de-escalating the trade war could reverse the downward bullish trend. However, at this point, no wave-based signals indicate a reversal.

GBP/USD Wave Outlook:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has evolved. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, markets may face numerous shocks and trend reversals that defy any wave structure or technical analysis framework. The formation of upward wave 3 is ongoing, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions, as the market shows no signs of reversing the trend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to interpret and often change.
2. If uncertain about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop-Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analysis methods and trading strategies.